{ "ticker": { "uuid": "353f1116-ec68-48f7-87b8-ec4202b4414a", "symbol": "002485", "name": "Cedar Development Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.465, "architecture_energy": 44.233, "architecture_maturity": 48.674, "architecture_confidence": 70.567, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.64, "rotation_up": 56.36, "upward_expansion": 78.28, "deceleration": 68.01, "rotation_down": 20.17, "downward_expansion": 4.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.525333, 5.454, 5.210619, 5.102903 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.88, "trend_reference": 4.933667, "distance_from_trend": 0.191811, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.819231, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.539577, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 25.925964, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.473684, "excess_performance": 0.466284, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.191811, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067508, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.539577, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.189172, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.25926, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.280665, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.473684, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.611795, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18494607, "relative_activity": 1.075403, "balance": 0.611795, "dry_up": 0.977679, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079278, "annualized_volatility": 0.379582, "from_high_reference": -0.074016, "from_low_reference": 0.734513 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.933667, "fair_value_reference": 3.819231, "structural_low": 3.94, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.005587, "positive_rate": 0.52, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": 0.016177, "regime_survival": 0.68, "best_return": 0.167089, "worst_return": -0.242915, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.059987, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.106025, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.369231, "worst_return": -0.431818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.099728, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.061754, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.343669, "worst_return": -0.423077, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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19290136, "typical_volume": 20309244.25, "trend": 4.832667, "fair_value": 3.801667, "relative_strength": 14.820554, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.683765, "energy": 72.384299, "activity_lines": [ 5.5, 5.302727, 5.10681, 5.011312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.25, "volume": 9828900, "typical_volume": 18404189.0, "trend": 4.877667, "fair_value": 3.809359, "relative_strength": 18.862691, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.241897, "energy": 42.615668, "activity_lines": [ 5.41, 5.326, 5.129, 5.038237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.88, "volume": 18494607, "typical_volume": 17197837.25, "trend": 4.933667, "fair_value": 3.819231, "relative_strength": 25.925964, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.464559, "energy": 44.233473, "activity_lines": [ 5.525333, 5.454, 5.210619, 5.102903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }