{ "ticker": { "uuid": "35424540-c94a-4a70-b4e7-a73190b56508", "symbol": "300817", "name": "SF Oilless Bearing Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.417, "architecture_energy": 71.682, "architecture_maturity": 28.87, "architecture_confidence": 88.303, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.92, "rotation_up": 10.9, "upward_expansion": 16.09, "deceleration": 38.19, "rotation_down": 70.95, "downward_expansion": 89.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.877333, 15.638028, 17.030989, 17.7377 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.76, "trend_reference": 18.78151, "distance_from_trend": -0.160877, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.947147, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.07005, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.687068, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.23122, "excess_performance": -0.238619, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.160877, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054834, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.07005, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.326396, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.226871, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013046, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.23122, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.451396, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11868630, "relative_activity": 0.820617, "balance": 0.451396, "dry_up": 0.910281, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.125088, "annualized_volatility": 0.569201, "from_high_reference": -0.368491, "from_low_reference": 0.212308 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.78151, "fair_value_reference": 16.947147, "structural_low": 13.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.007018, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.007061, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.234776, "worst_return": -0.197105, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.028818, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.011918, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.526767, "worst_return": -0.230911, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.010883, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.135016, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.778373, "worst_return": -0.177233, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.816998, "energy": 77.344362, "activity_lines": [ 16.108666, 17.020191, 18.03316, 18.602165 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.65, "volume": 14005308, "typical_volume": 14136120.25, "trend": 19.14951, "fair_value": 16.951423, "relative_strength": -32.150399, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.920046, "energy": 77.029818, "activity_lines": [ 15.146, 16.253363, 17.573611, 18.235938 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.63, "volume": 11179707, "typical_volume": 14237609.05, "trend": 18.963177, "fair_value": 16.940988, "relative_strength": -25.283706, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.872133, "energy": 78.401271, "activity_lines": [ 14.797333, 15.793644, 17.23749, 17.944357 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.76, "volume": 11868630, "typical_volume": 14463055.45, "trend": 18.78151, "fair_value": 16.947147, "relative_strength": -22.687068, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.416951, "energy": 71.681663, "activity_lines": [ 14.877333, 15.638028, 17.030989, 17.7377 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }