{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "3542f1e3-e250-481b-b9fc-7e2c24e90405",
    "symbol": "USAUSW",
    "name": "UBS Core MSCI USA UCITS ETF USD acc",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 95.008,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 84.384,
    "architecture_energy": 67.832,
    "architecture_maturity": 84.74,
    "architecture_confidence": 65.303,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 15.54,
        "rotation_up": 53.81,
        "upward_expansion": 83.0,
        "deceleration": 71.42,
        "rotation_down": 29.08,
        "downward_expansion": 12.0
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        38.579667,
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        37.857905,
        36.989646
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 39.380001,
    "trend_reference": 35.967334,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.094882,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 30.633339,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.285528,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -3.468005,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.158747,
    "excess_performance": -0.012145,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.094882,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.040757,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.285528,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.037953,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.03468,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.004338,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.158747,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 4.238487,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 61319,
      "relative_activity": 1.449611,
      "balance": 4.238487,
      "dry_up": 0.909018,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.01799,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.119304,
      "from_high_reference": -0.008934,
      "from_low_reference": 0.241097
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 35.967334,
      "fair_value_reference": 30.633339,
      "structural_low": 32.455002,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 35,
        "median_return": 0.019115,
        "positive_rate": 0.685714,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.685714,
        "median_excess_return": -0.00681,
        "regime_survival": 0.8,
        "best_return": 0.083907,
        "worst_return": -0.104522,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": 0.03104,
        "positive_rate": 0.833333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.833333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.007004,
        "regime_survival": 0.416667,
        "best_return": 0.124428,
        "worst_return": -0.18067,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.07118,
        "positive_rate": 0.625,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.625,
        "median_excess_return": -0.000306,
        "regime_survival": 0.375,
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        "worst_return": -0.086786,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.078948,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
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        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.188787,
        "worst_return": 0.034657,
        "sufficient": false
      }
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        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-05-17",
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        "return": 0.006311,
        "active": false
      },
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "return": -0.116045,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2025-06-06",
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "energy": 36.753618,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 35.705002,
        "volume": 67102,
        "typical_volume": 78375.95,
        "trend": 34.25953,
        "fair_value": 29.255006,
        "relative_strength": -3.404747,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
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        "energy": 60.944085,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 77322.15,
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        "fair_value": 29.352954,
        "relative_strength": -3.034221,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 90.086779,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 79572.0,
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        "fair_value": 29.452153,
        "relative_strength": -0.819219,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 79816.2,
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        "fair_value": 29.55257,
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        "direction": 89.06804,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 82892.15,
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        "fair_value": 29.65148,
        "relative_strength": -0.975818,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 82578.75,
        "trend": 34.7095,
        "fair_value": 29.750038,
        "relative_strength": -0.671336,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "direction": 77.466974,
        "energy": 91.765634,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 68310.05,
        "trend": 34.833,
        "fair_value": 29.844781,
        "relative_strength": -4.579763,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 87.715309,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "trend": 34.998167,
        "fair_value": 29.945422,
        "relative_strength": -5.393425,
        "stage": 2,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 56842.25,
        "trend": 35.113167,
        "fair_value": 30.040262,
        "relative_strength": -3.522466,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.353011,
        "energy": 66.552898,
        "activity_lines": [
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          35.811656
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "volume": 1307,
        "typical_volume": 52776.6,
        "trend": 35.245834,
        "fair_value": 30.140647,
        "relative_strength": -4.656891,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 78.107112,
        "energy": 69.715877,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 38.740002,
        "volume": 24839,
        "typical_volume": 50648.35,
        "trend": 35.407,
        "fair_value": 30.243211,
        "relative_strength": -3.466715,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 80.713163,
        "energy": 71.394299,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 38.325001,
        "volume": 29419,
        "typical_volume": 51207.1,
        "trend": 35.551167,
        "fair_value": 30.340454,
        "relative_strength": -3.052677,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.976049,
        "energy": 66.277791,
        "activity_lines": [
          38.387335,
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          37.259262,
          36.440624
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 38.355,
        "volume": 35061,
        "typical_volume": 49221.45,
        "trend": 35.691,
        "fair_value": 30.435358,
        "relative_strength": -2.737394,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.865074,
        "energy": 65.716615,
        "activity_lines": [
          38.400334,
          38.253364,
          37.461762,
          36.621517
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 37.834999,
        "volume": 28008,
        "typical_volume": 48257.5,
        "trend": 35.818,
        "fair_value": 30.529012,
        "relative_strength": -4.588099,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 61.417548,
        "energy": 60.453711,
        "activity_lines": [
          38.233334,
          38.199728,
          37.595596,
          36.759839
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 39.380001,
        "volume": 61319,
        "typical_volume": 42300.3,
        "trend": 35.967334,
        "fair_value": 30.633339,
        "relative_strength": -3.468005,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 84.384131,
        "energy": 67.83177,
        "activity_lines": [
          38.579667,
          38.425455,
          37.857905,
          36.989646
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}