{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3543246b-1768-485c-9e5a-1e2f6c1859e4", "symbol": "ASPN", "name": "Aspen Aerogels Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.683, "architecture_energy": 21.142, "architecture_maturity": 66.552, "architecture_confidence": 94.241, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.68, "rotation_up": 28.0, "upward_expansion": 53.47, "deceleration": 90.72, "rotation_down": 32.24, "downward_expansion": 21.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.28, 5.368364, 5.326143, 4.940194 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6.25, "trend_reference": 4.454, "distance_from_trend": 0.403233, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.12891, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.4384, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 13.70123, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.822157, "excess_performance": 0.696533, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.403233, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.205957, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.4384, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.115261, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.137012, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.276665, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.822157, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.418319, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19889917, "relative_activity": 2.594316, "balance": 1.418319, "dry_up": 1.108241, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.175045, "annualized_volatility": 0.795963, "from_high_reference": -0.331408, "from_low_reference": 1.717391 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.454, "fair_value_reference": 11.12891, "structural_low": 2.3, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.001228, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003861, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.842857, "worst_return": -0.383146, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.146035, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.186082, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.208443, "worst_return": -0.288443, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.380826, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.517392, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.66051, "worst_return": -0.704863, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.371634, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.401584, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.028144, "worst_return": -0.771412, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.194841, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.12037, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.086427, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.521709, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.074689, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.205749, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025189, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.165803, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.056497, "active": false }, { 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-8.97718, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.012165, "energy": 32.620743, "activity_lines": [ 5.571333, 5.709636, 5.150667, 4.70671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.13, "volume": 3939209, "typical_volume": 7282548.65, "trend": 4.24, "fair_value": 11.17141, "relative_strength": -6.955879, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.04072, "energy": 22.026532, "activity_lines": [ 5.374, 5.604545, 5.202524, 4.768796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.67, "volume": 4529499, "typical_volume": 7097160.35, "trend": 4.297667, "fair_value": 11.150128, "relative_strength": -13.450534, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.58033, "energy": 20.555728, "activity_lines": [ 5.076, 5.414182, 5.201, 4.796538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.63, "volume": 5627711, "typical_volume": 7000581.55, "trend": 4.355667, "fair_value": 11.129551, "relative_strength": -13.72228, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.976425, "energy": 18.8576, "activity_lines": [ 4.874667, 5.233455, 5.188762, 4.817978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.25, "volume": 19889917, "typical_volume": 7666728.25, "trend": 4.454, "fair_value": 11.12891, "relative_strength": 13.70123, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.682589, "energy": 21.141702, "activity_lines": [ 5.28, 5.368364, 5.326143, 4.940194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }