{ "ticker": { "uuid": "35439106-9d51-498f-8e08-4eaa02a058d1", "symbol": "CVL", "name": "Civmec Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.462, "architecture_energy": 26.947, "architecture_maturity": 67.054, "architecture_confidence": 94.277, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.25, "rotation_up": 23.74, "upward_expansion": 55.29, "deceleration": 91.08, "rotation_down": 33.75, "downward_expansion": 18.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.750333, 1.792091, 1.752357, 1.702753 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.82, "trend_reference": 1.653525, "distance_from_trend": 0.100679, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.145993, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.588143, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 13.714561, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.213878, "excess_performance": 0.150172, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.100679, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091651, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.588143, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084709, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.137146, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049347, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.213878, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.428712, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2311331, "relative_activity": 2.177392, "balance": 1.428712, "dry_up": 2.136352, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067625, "annualized_volatility": 0.32481, "from_high_reference": -0.107843, "from_low_reference": 0.68618 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.653525, "fair_value_reference": 1.145993, "structural_low": 1.356768, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.016393, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.00314, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.166666, "worst_return": -0.205992, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.088137, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.079414, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.230216, "worst_return": -0.342147, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.05334, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.015051, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.306394, "worst_return": -0.165647, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.124485, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.096331, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.204283, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.035972, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.000234, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.872258, "energy": 37.580598, "activity_lines": [ 1.819667, 1.825818, 1.728621, 1.682784 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.695, "volume": 3198177, "typical_volume": 955594.4, "trend": 1.638599, "fair_value": 1.133482, "relative_strength": 13.399147, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.890593, "energy": 24.668721, "activity_lines": [ 1.762667, 1.806909, 1.732412, 1.687023 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.71, "volume": 1907316, "typical_volume": 986581.45, "trend": 1.647588, "fair_value": 1.139275, "relative_strength": 11.074709, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.192261, "energy": 27.890648, "activity_lines": [ 1.730667, 1.789818, 1.737379, 1.69163 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.82, "volume": 2311331, "typical_volume": 1061513.5, "trend": 1.653525, "fair_value": 1.145993, "relative_strength": 13.714561, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.462313, "energy": 26.947434, "activity_lines": [ 1.750333, 1.792091, 1.752357, 1.702753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }