{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3554da4d-c6c9-4944-8fad-c1106f76cf99", "symbol": "EMIF", "name": "ISHARES EMERGING MARKETS INFRASTRUCTURE ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 67.996, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.399, "architecture_energy": 47.826, "architecture_maturity": 27.66, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.32, "rotation_up": 23.87, "upward_expansion": 7.37, "deceleration": 55.14, "rotation_down": 52.81, "downward_expansion": 80.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.11136, 26.191535, 26.670003, 27.126683 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 26.1709, "trend_reference": 27.664781, "distance_from_trend": -0.053999, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.163836, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.180793, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.200267, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.112174, "excess_performance": -0.299628, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.053999, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000821, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.180793, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.147019, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.142003, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072836, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.112174, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.31326, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12783, "relative_activity": 0.733839, "balance": 0.31326, "dry_up": 0.586359, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028693, "annualized_volatility": 0.161586, "from_high_reference": -0.141165, "from_low_reference": 0.11076 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.664781, "fair_value_reference": 22.163836, "structural_low": 25.64, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.018274, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": 0.015355, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.070051, "worst_return": -0.108478, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.012388, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.065829, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.138839, "worst_return": -0.03965, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.06888, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.034282, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.14774, "worst_return": -0.081941, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"trend": 27.730641, "fair_value": 21.950725, "relative_strength": -13.542957, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.176898, "energy": 62.03508, "activity_lines": [ 26.463836, 26.690053, 27.344325, 27.652472 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 26.2327, "volume": 3770, "typical_volume": 19188.0, "trend": 27.727716, "fair_value": 21.992363, "relative_strength": -14.854936, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.147073, "energy": 62.190892, "activity_lines": [ 26.390843, 26.539676, 27.189955, 27.55583 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.6738, "volume": 9230, "typical_volume": 18618.7, "trend": 27.706017, "fair_value": 22.031501, "relative_strength": -12.908191, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.698894, "energy": 74.725847, "activity_lines": [ 26.12292, 26.331404, 27.002511, 27.42332 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.98, "volume": 11045, "typical_volume": 17888.15, "trend": 27.683573, "fair_value": 22.07112, "relative_strength": -10.317667, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.518158, "energy": 66.467537, "activity_lines": [ 26.02362, 26.23284, 26.866139, 27.311964 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.3239, "volume": 7798, "typical_volume": 17234.85, "trend": 27.683073, "fair_value": 22.117297, "relative_strength": -9.512129, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.90341, "energy": 54.50369, "activity_lines": [ 26.083287, 26.219196, 26.772616, 27.224243 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.1709, "volume": 12783, "typical_volume": 17419.35, "trend": 27.664781, "fair_value": 22.163836, "relative_strength": -14.200267, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.399208, "energy": 47.826275, "activity_lines": [ 26.11136, 26.191535, 26.670003, 27.126683 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }