{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3555d146-4218-4f65-b7c5-884bcfbea748", "symbol": "CRC", "name": "California Resources Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 80.084, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.428, "architecture_energy": 52.552, "architecture_maturity": 14.491, "architecture_confidence": 93.6, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.99, "rotation_up": 22.38, "upward_expansion": 9.94, "deceleration": 44.74, "rotation_down": 53.79, "downward_expansion": 83.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.628, 53.079455, 55.945727, 57.571548 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 52.08, "trend_reference": 58.03495, "distance_from_trend": -0.10261, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 49.408764, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.054064, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.462315, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.047614, "excess_performance": -0.173239, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.10261, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050607, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.054064, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.158285, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.134623, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156827, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.047614, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.794233, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4062148, "relative_activity": 1.004092, "balance": 0.794233, "dry_up": 0.939665, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072605, "annualized_volatility": 0.352072, "from_high_reference": -0.271523, "from_low_reference": 0.220516 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 58.03495, "fair_value_reference": 49.408764, "structural_low": 49.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.073688, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.019167, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.230191, "worst_return": -0.152688, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.106878, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": 0.04625, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.469415, "worst_return": -0.071355, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.123638, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.079809, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.317011, "worst_return": 0.025165, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.685757, "energy": 62.540117, "activity_lines": [ 53.182, 55.421235, 58.726929, 58.765688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 52.83, "volume": 3563150, "typical_volume": 4525451.85, "trend": 57.235393, "fair_value": 49.349714, "relative_strength": -8.971972, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.861204, "energy": 61.127914, "activity_lines": [ 52.702, 54.66588, 57.98575, 58.502564 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 53.47, "volume": 3731099, "typical_volume": 4425793.3, "trend": 57.568572, "fair_value": 49.382935, "relative_strength": -7.239709, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.305225, "energy": 53.455707, "activity_lines": [ 52.820667, 54.130347, 57.330421, 58.259636 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 52.62, "volume": 3849620, "typical_volume": 4288068.3, "trend": 57.796783, "fair_value": 49.40488, "relative_strength": -9.62664, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.15646, "energy": 38.319194, "activity_lines": [ 52.778, 53.572182, 56.643709, 57.940373 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.08, "volume": 4062148, "typical_volume": 4045594.4, "trend": 58.03495, "fair_value": 49.408764, "relative_strength": -13.462315, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.428081, "energy": 52.551984, "activity_lines": [ 52.628, 53.079455, 55.945727, 57.571548 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }