{ "ticker": { "uuid": "355881f1-e1d3-46e8-b784-da264d67fd29", "symbol": "MUTHOOTCAP", "name": "Muthoot Capital Services Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 61.155, "architecture_energy": 71.741, "architecture_maturity": 20.541, "architecture_confidence": 77.28, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.96, "rotation_up": 76.56, "upward_expansion": 64.52, "deceleration": 21.05, "rotation_down": 16.72, "downward_expansion": 22.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 235.987331, 225.55309, 215.70281, 212.877484 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 259.209991, "trend_reference": 214.798001, "distance_from_trend": 0.206762, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 301.019936, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.138894, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.085405, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.099139, "excess_performance": 0.142848, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.206762, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08154, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.138894, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.146337, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.090854, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.208259, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.099139, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.211059, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 231471, "relative_activity": 1.720462, "balance": 2.211059, "dry_up": 1.204248, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066094, "annualized_volatility": 0.417862, "from_high_reference": -0.144521, "from_low_reference": 0.479087 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 214.798001, "fair_value_reference": 301.019936, "structural_low": 175.25, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.095302, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.0611, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.212145, "worst_return": -0.22486, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.042356, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.018443, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.069598, "worst_return": -0.05617, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.014984, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.000541, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.200298, "worst_return": -0.088699, "sufficient": false }, { 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"direction": 18.234799, "energy": 31.669726, "activity_lines": [ 217.828003, 212.079639, 207.791573, 208.971851 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 233.479996, "volume": 117073, "typical_volume": 131620.4, "trend": 215.321001, "fair_value": 301.600641, "relative_strength": -1.118761, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 44.81, "energy": 53.990663, "activity_lines": [ 223.646001, 216.801819, 210.621954, 210.045936 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 259.209991, "volume": 231471, "typical_volume": 134540.0, "trend": 214.798001, "fair_value": 301.019936, "relative_strength": 9.085405, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 61.15479, "energy": 71.741418, "activity_lines": [ 235.987331, 225.55309, 215.70281, 212.877484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }