{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3558a314-7438-463e-928b-e21906133ffa", "symbol": "6449", "name": "Apaq Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 56.216, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.683, "architecture_energy": 34.016, "architecture_maturity": 42.106, "architecture_confidence": 67.06, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.58, "rotation_up": 14.3, "upward_expansion": 17.0, "deceleration": 61.05, "rotation_down": 68.51, "downward_expansion": 46.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 222.866667, 251.05009, 281.530519, 262.427675 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 214.0, "trend_reference": 234.692336, "distance_from_trend": -0.088168, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 141.809143, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.509071, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.679272, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.354977, "excess_performance": 0.009244, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.088168, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.200081, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.509071, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.005947, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.226793, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.510689, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.354977, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.428383, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2221122, "relative_activity": 0.317206, "balance": 1.428383, "dry_up": 0.760028, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.298845, "annualized_volatility": 1.024271, "from_high_reference": -0.553012, "from_low_reference": 0.771466 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 234.692336, "fair_value_reference": 141.809143, "structural_low": 145.55883, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.007547, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.020035, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.293138, "worst_return": -0.113872, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.068146, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.011785, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.329968, "worst_return": -0.12628, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.301378, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.244961, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.125984, "worst_return": -0.277358, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"2026-07-31", "close": 210.5, "volume": 5464450, "typical_volume": 6503275.65, "trend": 229.488416, "fair_value": 138.657655, "relative_strength": -20.166186, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.688557, "energy": 21.396298, "activity_lines": [ 255.7, 303.127102, 292.785566, 263.799743 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 225.5, "volume": 6384862, "typical_volume": 6705987.25, "trend": 231.278448, "fair_value": 139.717847, "relative_strength": -16.673629, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.235974, "energy": 26.417312, "activity_lines": [ 236.933333, 283.161324, 289.484141, 263.542425 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 233.5, "volume": 7216854, "typical_volume": 6994030.1, "trend": 233.50018, "fair_value": 140.829322, "relative_strength": -16.801547, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.367814, "energy": 32.09391, "activity_lines": [ 229.2, 267.6615, 286.625246, 263.685751 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 214.0, "volume": 2221122, "typical_volume": 7002136.2, "trend": 234.692336, "fair_value": 141.809143, "relative_strength": -22.679272, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.683388, "energy": 34.015528, "activity_lines": [ 222.866667, 251.05009, 281.530519, 262.427675 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }