{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "355b357d-9b5a-4bad-a3d3-f794675ca1e5",
    "symbol": "PAVG",
    "name": "Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development UCITS ETF USD Dis",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 46.032,
    "architecture_energy": 24.182,
    "architecture_maturity": 43.799,
    "architecture_confidence": 88.806,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 41.63,
        "rotation_up": 32.68,
        "upward_expansion": 57.04,
        "deceleration": 87.51,
        "rotation_down": 25.66,
        "downward_expansion": 18.37
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        39.069805,
        39.228837,
        38.894258,
        38.269259
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 39.794998,
    "trend_reference": 37.450558,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.062601,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 29.762644,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.337079,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 4.165458,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.087592,
    "excess_performance": 0.036357,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.062601,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.059424,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.337079,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.011168,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.041655,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.052915,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.087592,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.185065,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 9181,
      "relative_activity": 0.684986,
      "balance": 1.185065,
      "dry_up": 1.153139,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.038973,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.180493,
      "from_high_reference": -0.044048,
      "from_low_reference": 0.297527
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 37.450558,
      "fair_value_reference": 29.762644,
      "structural_low": 33.247501,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": 0.02529,
        "positive_rate": 0.555556,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.555556,
        "median_excess_return": 0.006676,
        "regime_survival": 0.555556,
        "best_return": 0.104084,
        "worst_return": -0.075562,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.003306,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.006049,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.183228,
        "worst_return": -0.179116,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.112107,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.154958,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.286683,
        "worst_return": 0.002472,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.194096,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.036655,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.272513,
        "worst_return": 0.115679,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-08-02",
        "end": "2024-10-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.060905,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-10-11",
        "end": "2024-10-25",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.00206,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-11-01",
        "end": "2024-12-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.023092,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-01-31",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.054234,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-07",
        "end": "2025-02-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.012524,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-02-21",
        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.091001,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-14",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.091087,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.136617,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.014241,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-07-04",
        "end": "2025-08-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.046443,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-15",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.095474,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-04-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.082324,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-04-24",
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.040993,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.043119,
        "active": true
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    ],
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 9078.15,
        "trend": 34.62169,
        "fair_value": 28.190238,
        "relative_strength": 7.76675,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 64.305725,
        "energy": 67.517486,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "fair_value": 28.307124,
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        "direction": 67.13026,
        "energy": 71.085384,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 11346.1,
        "trend": 35.026959,
        "fair_value": 28.421442,
        "relative_strength": 9.314542,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 11710.0,
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        "relative_strength": 4.237094,
        "stage": 2,
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        "energy": 42.934706,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 38.34,
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        "typical_volume": 11627.0,
        "trend": 35.349938,
        "fair_value": 28.6459,
        "relative_strength": 7.301926,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 11548.4,
        "trend": 35.565321,
        "fair_value": 28.762733,
        "relative_strength": 9.594068,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "relative_strength": 8.269862,
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        "direction": 67.727012,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 11188.5,
        "trend": 36.305909,
        "fair_value": 29.120149,
        "relative_strength": 11.609448,
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        "direction": 77.889904,
        "energy": 82.186279,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 39.163754,
        "volume": 7976,
        "typical_volume": 10819.5,
        "trend": 36.502873,
        "fair_value": 29.231878,
        "relative_strength": 5.285883,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.119103,
        "energy": 70.087085,
        "activity_lines": [
          39.850239,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 38.767075,
        "volume": 8970,
        "typical_volume": 11048.75,
        "trend": 36.682955,
        "fair_value": 29.341458,
        "relative_strength": 5.844041,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 60.719481,
        "energy": 51.857507,
        "activity_lines": [
          39.527332,
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          38.431409,
          37.746501
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 38.43,
        "volume": 11902,
        "typical_volume": 11279.9,
        "trend": 36.865026,
        "fair_value": 29.444448,
        "relative_strength": 3.780188,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 44.822853,
        "energy": 32.116383,
        "activity_lines": [
          39.115594,
          39.177622,
          38.508416,
          37.859214
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 39.615002,
        "volume": 31957,
        "typical_volume": 12814.9,
        "trend": 37.084434,
        "fair_value": 29.554574,
        "relative_strength": 5.488831,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 46.510566,
        "energy": 26.230194,
        "activity_lines": [
          39.147109,
          39.29624,
          38.693149,
          38.036632
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 38.150002,
        "volume": 8783,
        "typical_volume": 13126.65,
        "trend": 37.254842,
        "fair_value": 29.653234,
        "relative_strength": 0.292303,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 34.804632,
        "energy": 20.169825,
        "activity_lines": [
          38.746528,
          39.120312,
          38.723656,
          38.105378
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 39.794998,
        "volume": 9181,
        "typical_volume": 13403.2,
        "trend": 37.450558,
        "fair_value": 29.762644,
        "relative_strength": 4.165458,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 46.031738,
        "energy": 24.182421,
        "activity_lines": [
          39.069805,
          39.228837,
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          38.269259
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}