{ "ticker": { "uuid": "35607434-27b9-45c2-a3f6-22df292f1565", "symbol": "STU", "name": "State Street SPDR MSCI Europe Utilities UCITS ETF", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 71.784, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.806, "architecture_energy": 30.793, "architecture_maturity": 28.44, "architecture_confidence": 63.353, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.72, "rotation_up": 46.22, "upward_expansion": 68.43, "deceleration": 61.95, "rotation_down": 20.09, "downward_expansion": 9.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 264.226666, 264.266364, 261.72119, 259.967956 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 262.25, "trend_reference": 256.414999, "distance_from_trend": 0.022756, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 192.942756, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.359211, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.002523, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.062386, "excess_performance": 0.009075, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.022756, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054699, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.359211, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031474, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.030025, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104204, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.062386, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.421374, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2437, "relative_activity": 0.389961, "balance": 1.421374, "dry_up": 1.807388, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026076, "annualized_volatility": 0.211382, "from_high_reference": -0.035668, "from_low_reference": 0.358949 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 256.414999, "fair_value_reference": 192.942756, "structural_low": 241.850006, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.001499, "positive_rate": 0.518519, "directional_follow_through": 0.518519, "median_excess_return": -0.003328, "regime_survival": 0.703704, "best_return": 0.071378, "worst_return": -0.068828, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.05545, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.01605, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.102821, "worst_return": -0.080686, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.047988, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.005277, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.194451, "worst_return": -0.037554, "sufficient": true }, { 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.058781, "energy": 61.801903, "activity_lines": [ 264.063336, 260.813637, 259.357381, 256.939677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 268.5, "volume": 22683, "typical_volume": 6794.55, "trend": 252.818333, "fair_value": 190.878397, "relative_strength": 11.292395, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.719165, "energy": 72.348321, "activity_lines": [ 266.006669, 262.639092, 260.320238, 258.049355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 269.149994, "volume": 5307, "typical_volume": 6472.75, "trend": 254.375, "fair_value": 191.570897, "relative_strength": 10.644444, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.663392, "energy": 71.865911, "activity_lines": [ 267.533333, 264.366364, 261.323333, 259.10301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 261.0, "volume": 14753, "typical_volume": 6908.95, "trend": 255.468333, "fair_value": 192.255256, "relative_strength": 5.275938, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.784007, "energy": 40.094528, "activity_lines": [ 265.583333, 264.234545, 261.465, 259.530429 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 262.25, "volume": 2437, "typical_volume": 6249.35, "trend": 256.414999, "fair_value": 192.942756, "relative_strength": 3.002523, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.8062, "energy": 30.793183, "activity_lines": [ 264.226666, 264.266364, 261.72119, 259.967956 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }