{ "ticker": { "uuid": "356180d2-8fb5-473b-ba31-2a2163579309", "symbol": "002596", "name": "Hainan RuiZe New Building Material Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.148, "architecture_energy": 49.176, "architecture_maturity": 81.14, "architecture_confidence": 86.171, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.59, "rotation_up": 25.21, "upward_expansion": 7.3, "deceleration": 60.7, "rotation_down": 52.63, "downward_expansion": 80.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.007333, 3.026909, 3.26319, 3.442667 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.19, "trend_reference": 3.738333, "distance_from_trend": -0.146679, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.170833, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.006045, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.841905, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.27991, "excess_performance": -0.287309, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.146679, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.169013, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.006045, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.205254, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.248419, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015668, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.27991, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.154278, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 110826840, "relative_activity": 0.948036, "balance": 1.154278, "dry_up": 1.176579, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102001, "annualized_volatility": 0.368044, "from_high_reference": -0.557559, "from_low_reference": 0.26087 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.738333, "fair_value_reference": 3.170833, "structural_low": 2.53, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.013746, "positive_rate": 0.484848, "directional_follow_through": 0.515152, "median_excess_return": 0.027289, "regime_survival": 0.848485, "best_return": 0.504425, "worst_return": -0.219178, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.005319, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.013092, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.901408, "worst_return": -0.279188, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.050518, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.050682, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.380282, "worst_return": -0.224044, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.114695, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.134426, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.075209, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.11437, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.161663, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"typical_volume": 127280032.95, "trend": 4.110333, "fair_value": 3.167372, "relative_strength": -38.716389, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.488975, "energy": 90.531472, "activity_lines": [ 3.030667, 3.291273, 3.481857, 3.698796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.74, "volume": 104766927, "typical_volume": 119886674.4, "trend": 3.990667, "fair_value": 3.166923, "relative_strength": -34.69135, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.195722, "energy": 91.038483, "activity_lines": [ 2.894667, 3.156909, 3.396286, 3.610387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.85, "volume": 203366820, "typical_volume": 119628059.6, "trend": 3.907333, "fair_value": 3.167244, "relative_strength": -31.587843, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.479675, "energy": 74.16287, "activity_lines": [ 2.856, 3.062, 3.328381, 3.536796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.07, "volume": 131214668, "typical_volume": 119368505.3, "trend": 3.811667, "fair_value": 3.169103, "relative_strength": -24.416136, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.85467, "energy": 60.039515, "activity_lines": [ 2.916, 3.026545, 3.287714, 3.482774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.19, "volume": 110826840, "typical_volume": 116901467.1, "trend": 3.738333, "fair_value": 3.170833, "relative_strength": -24.841905, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.147843, "energy": 49.17626, "activity_lines": [ 3.007333, 3.026909, 3.26319, 3.442667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }