{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3561fe73-7325-4504-927c-4eb77c2ddd8f", "symbol": "PCAR3", "name": "Companhia Brasileira De Distribuicao", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 36.607, "architecture_energy": 52.533, "architecture_maturity": 15.731, "architecture_confidence": 63.245, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.47, "rotation_up": 70.2, "upward_expansion": 54.35, "deceleration": 17.06, "rotation_down": 14.89, "downward_expansion": 24.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.750667, 2.591818, 2.38881, 2.414581 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.92, "trend_reference": 2.603333, "distance_from_trend": 0.121639, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.317244, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.119751, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.202605, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.215054, "excess_performance": -0.158005, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.121639, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.157861, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.119751, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.371062, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.112026, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.285516, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.215054, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.094336, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33049200, "relative_activity": 1.564784, "balance": 1.094336, "dry_up": 1.005865, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.120917, "annualized_volatility": 0.820179, "from_high_reference": -0.365217, "from_low_reference": 1.070922 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.603333, "fair_value_reference": 3.317244, "structural_low": 1.41, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.049289, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.041713, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.205393, "worst_return": -0.19685, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.244755, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.181437, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.15748, "worst_return": -0.745841, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.228428, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.143939, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.03937, "worst_return": -0.770511, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": 7.326958, "energy": 23.073132, "activity_lines": [ 2.441333, 2.213091, 2.212048, 2.406043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.6, "volume": 19714200, "typical_volume": 29148585.0, "trend": 2.707, "fair_value": 3.657244, "relative_strength": -23.622014, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.453957, "energy": 26.758753, "activity_lines": [ 2.56, 2.294909, 2.242714, 2.396602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.79, "volume": 13347000, "typical_volume": 24567755.0, "trend": 2.68, "fair_value": 3.543269, "relative_strength": -17.369356, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 13.57445, "energy": 34.317276, "activity_lines": [ 2.672, 2.407636, 2.293762, 2.401957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.59, "volume": 18867600, "typical_volume": 21307120.0, "trend": 2.634333, "fair_value": 3.429359, "relative_strength": -24.110151, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.465859, "energy": 37.383937, "activity_lines": [ 2.666667, 2.474364, 2.32619, 2.396151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.92, "volume": 33049200, "typical_volume": 21120620.0, "trend": 2.603333, "fair_value": 3.317244, "relative_strength": -11.202605, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.606542, "energy": 52.533417, "activity_lines": [ 2.750667, 2.591818, 2.38881, 2.414581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }