{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3562006e-ddba-4732-9897-c93c66e2c260", "symbol": "4414", "name": "Roo Hsing Co., Ltd", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.946, "architecture_energy": 41.464, "architecture_maturity": 60.913, "architecture_confidence": 94.155, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.27, "rotation_up": 27.18, "upward_expansion": 5.99, "deceleration": 56.52, "rotation_down": 46.38, "downward_expansion": 79.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.476667, 8.551636, 8.719143, 9.182516 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.62, "trend_reference": 9.705, "distance_from_trend": -0.111798, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.144426, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.290209, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.906877, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.142289, "excess_performance": -0.583661, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.111798, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073007, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.290209, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034438, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.419069, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03061, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.142289, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.542646, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1143170, "relative_activity": 0.583106, "balance": 0.542646, "dry_up": 0.461142, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074514, "annualized_volatility": 0.389146, "from_high_reference": -0.384286, "from_low_reference": 0.131234 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.705, "fair_value_reference": 12.144426, "structural_low": 7.62, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.410256, "directional_follow_through": 0.487179, "median_excess_return": -0.036017, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.452055, "worst_return": -0.328736, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.064378, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.170034, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.366438, "worst_return": -0.328736, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.094115, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.268392, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": -0.036517, "worst_return": -0.364035, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"fair_value": 12.33284, "relative_strength": -43.212763, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.981813, "energy": 37.125709, "activity_lines": [ 8.683333, 8.580909, 9.132619, 9.559677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.58, "volume": 634684, "typical_volume": 2572066.4, "trend": 9.998667, "fair_value": 12.276402, "relative_strength": -42.545917, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.758542, "energy": 33.484213, "activity_lines": [ 8.655333, 8.586727, 9.021762, 9.461871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.4, "volume": 947933, "typical_volume": 2479077.65, "trend": 9.890333, "fair_value": 12.227082, "relative_strength": -42.006932, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.005362, "energy": 45.058606, "activity_lines": [ 8.558, 8.573818, 8.901476, 9.358731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.32, "volume": 890461, "typical_volume": 2205230.95, "trend": 9.781, "fair_value": 12.183819, "relative_strength": -42.980261, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.939588, "energy": 46.670344, "activity_lines": [ 8.432667, 8.539818, 8.787857, 9.257419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 8.62, "volume": 1143170, "typical_volume": 1960483.3, "trend": 9.705, "fair_value": 12.144426, "relative_strength": -41.906877, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.945736, "energy": 41.463512, "activity_lines": [ 8.476667, 8.551636, 8.719143, 9.182516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }