{ "ticker": { "uuid": "35698b16-1eda-40d8-881b-494385ecd16e", "symbol": "002443", "name": "Zhejiang Kingland Pipeline and Technologies Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 53.375, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -27.228, "architecture_energy": 56.027, "architecture_maturity": 7.434, "architecture_confidence": 63.879, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.02, "rotation_up": 14.67, "upward_expansion": 26.77, "deceleration": 49.64, "rotation_down": 70.34, "downward_expansion": 56.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.559333, 9.098727, 9.958582, 9.9375 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 9.33, "trend_reference": 9.7485, "distance_from_trend": -0.04293, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.946096, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.343201, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.521049, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.076055, "excess_performance": 0.068655, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.04293, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05559, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.343201, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.436404, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.02521, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.200544, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.076055, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.351839, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 81250382, "relative_activity": 0.777381, "balance": 1.351839, "dry_up": 0.771418, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.138294, "annualized_volatility": 0.572118, "from_high_reference": -0.326303, "from_low_reference": 0.410395 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.7485, "fair_value_reference": 6.946096, "structural_low": 7.16, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.018901, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.048976, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.085992, "worst_return": -0.070229, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.094656, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.022292, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.005155, "worst_return": -0.122053, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.079057, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.028174, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.214564, "worst_return": -0.161747, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.083465, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034364, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.026623, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.048593, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", 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10.262282 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 10.14, "volume": 14105856, "typical_volume": 105671129.15, "trend": 9.678442, "fair_value": 6.872765, "relative_strength": 2.171342, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.857815, "energy": 19.757948, "activity_lines": [ 10.466, 11.008326, 10.740339, 10.296572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.41, "volume": 80132961, "typical_volume": 106615731.0, "trend": 9.72238, "fair_value": 6.894567, "relative_strength": -1.740389, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.576466, "energy": 17.225531, "activity_lines": [ 10.051333, 10.653244, 10.654093, 10.279253 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.47, "volume": 87856018, "typical_volume": 106327138.05, "trend": 9.741637, "fair_value": 6.908399, "relative_strength": -2.901111, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.380954, "energy": 37.260465, "activity_lines": [ 9.421333, 10.170953, 10.475609, 10.198454 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.81, "volume": 87984358, "typical_volume": 105126339.75, "trend": 9.724259, "fair_value": 6.917515, "relative_strength": -10.817235, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.705939, "energy": 58.817363, "activity_lines": [ 8.744, 9.628909, 10.24045, 10.073832 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.99, "volume": 65417659, "typical_volume": 104054572.35, "trend": 9.708891, "fair_value": 6.927541, "relative_strength": -7.383018, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.246278, "energy": 64.335549, "activity_lines": [ 8.370667, 9.201273, 10.031996, 9.961945 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.33, "volume": 81250382, "typical_volume": 104518109.25, "trend": 9.7485, "fair_value": 6.946096, "relative_strength": 2.521049, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.228061, "energy": 56.026839, "activity_lines": [ 8.559333, 9.098727, 9.958582, 9.9375 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }