{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3576397e-9217-4e57-a928-1653ce5ac745", "symbol": "ALSO", "name": "Alstom SA", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.062, "architecture_energy": 61.592, "architecture_maturity": 67.899, "architecture_confidence": 92.51, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.85, "rotation_up": 27.99, "upward_expansion": 25.15, "deceleration": 30.98, "rotation_down": 44.29, "downward_expansion": 72.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.239, 16.094182, 16.542548, 18.095667 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 16.73, "trend_reference": 20.558667, "distance_from_trend": -0.186231, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.109816, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.124534, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -37.14761, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.407578, "excess_performance": -0.581825, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.186231, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110361, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.124534, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003524, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.371476, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034941, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.407578, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.070712, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.070712, "dry_up": 2.269534, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040002, "annualized_volatility": 0.572554, "from_high_reference": -0.446027, "from_low_reference": 0.107214 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.558667, "fair_value_reference": 19.109816, "structural_low": 15.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.020425, "positive_rate": 0.652174, "directional_follow_through": 0.347826, "median_excess_return": 0.002748, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.2891, "worst_return": -0.243497, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.000359, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.01592, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.395142, "worst_return": -0.309115, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.22018, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.054576, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.479858, "worst_return": -0.326802, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.073649, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.02463, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.672386, "worst_return": -0.46448, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.178988, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.127651, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.170947, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.149324, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.056297, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038334, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.070572, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.095969, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076753, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044492, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.046522, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009013, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033619, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.039334, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 24.889999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 174.2, "trend": 25.781416, "fair_value": 30.582717, "relative_strength": 4.994123, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.198126, 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"2026-05-15", "close": 17.165001, "volume": 375, "typical_volume": 190.7, "trend": 23.419333, "fair_value": 19.909857, "relative_strength": -33.943544, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.746063, "energy": 87.258833, "activity_lines": [ 17.046334, 18.768091, 21.69831, 22.754032 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 16.870001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 190.7, "trend": 23.256667, "fair_value": 19.848407, "relative_strength": -36.038471, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.227436, "energy": 84.204104, "activity_lines": [ 17.042334, 18.155, 21.054262, 22.331495 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 17.33, "volume": 115, "typical_volume": 186.95, "trend": 23.109, "fair_value": 19.791685, "relative_strength": -35.586926, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.871032, "energy": 63.26415, "activity_lines": [ 17.157667, 17.748273, 20.495738, 21.949129 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 17.065001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 158.45, "trend": 22.984167, "fair_value": 19.724177, "relative_strength": -35.489105, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.910541, "energy": 64.299218, "activity_lines": [ 17.133334, 17.40191, 19.951929, 21.559194 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 16.25, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 123.45, "trend": 22.739167, "fair_value": 19.657354, "relative_strength": -39.828977, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.274008, "energy": 65.639354, "activity_lines": [ 16.827, 17.026, 19.372857, 21.124731 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 16.145, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 123.45, "trend": 22.525667, "fair_value": 19.593036, "relative_strength": -42.20856, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.784207, "energy": 70.543556, "activity_lines": [ 16.563334, 16.771728, 18.834215, 20.699301 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 15.405, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 123.45, "trend": 22.286833, "fair_value": 19.516158, "relative_strength": -43.27997, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.824003, "energy": 84.169646, "activity_lines": [ 16.121, 16.516819, 18.277976, 20.239903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 16.110001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 123.45, "trend": 22.0695, "fair_value": 19.460892, "relative_strength": -41.617423, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.735093, "energy": 71.631932, "activity_lines": [ 16.011334, 16.407455, 17.85, 19.841398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.665, "volume": 5706, "typical_volume": 408.75, "trend": 21.778333, "fair_value": 19.389239, "relative_strength": -41.973475, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.367801, "energy": 75.677264, "activity_lines": [ 15.834667, 16.225364, 17.440167, 19.428204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.64, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 404.75, "trend": 21.466333, "fair_value": 19.313726, "relative_strength": -40.361142, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.746541, "energy": 89.328723, "activity_lines": [ 15.743, 16.061364, 17.093691, 19.032183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.01, "volume": 6396, "typical_volume": 704.55, "trend": 21.171333, "fair_value": 19.236291, "relative_strength": -39.155482, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.512866, "energy": 86.413961, "activity_lines": [ 15.815333, 15.996909, 16.842738, 18.680161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.24, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 704.55, "trend": 20.858333, "fair_value": 19.168919, "relative_strength": -37.734916, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.534778, "energy": 81.884777, "activity_lines": [ 15.973333, 15.995273, 16.651738, 18.362011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.73, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 704.55, "trend": 20.558667, "fair_value": 19.109816, "relative_strength": -37.14761, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.061509, "energy": 61.591901, "activity_lines": [ 16.239, 16.094182, 16.542548, 18.095667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }