{ "ticker": { "uuid": "357b1036-2fa6-4f6f-a370-2abf8caca596", "symbol": "MMTC", "name": "MMTC Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 65.73, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -13.461, "architecture_energy": 21.452, "architecture_maturity": 25.794, "architecture_confidence": 61.394, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.42, "rotation_up": 14.81, "upward_expansion": 14.67, "deceleration": 62.39, "rotation_down": 56.25, "downward_expansion": 39.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 63.16, 64.900363, 65.430714, 64.439355 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 63.98, "trend_reference": 63.717333, "distance_from_trend": 0.004122, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 68.261667, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.062724, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.821376, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.002183, "excess_performance": 0.041526, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004122, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025532, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.062724, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097083, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.008214, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076189, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.002183, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.642888, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6470122, "relative_activity": 0.347978, "balance": 3.642888, "dry_up": 0.346179, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072475, "annualized_volatility": 0.422977, "from_high_reference": -0.15538, "from_low_reference": 0.277046 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 63.717333, "fair_value_reference": 68.261667, "structural_low": 50.099998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.019469, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.010527, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.162098, "worst_return": -0.119453, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.038111, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.030931, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.65764, "worst_return": -0.186467, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.032867, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.025188, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.70346, "worst_return": -0.174721, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.142201, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.142817, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.273476, "worst_return": -0.247212, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076854, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.228238, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01528, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.199497, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.183514, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.081519, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054693, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.181413, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.156016, "energy": 31.560924, "activity_lines": [ 67.807332, 67.652363, 65.796571, 64.65858 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 63.52, "volume": 6213639, "typical_volume": 26136017.45, "trend": 63.932, "fair_value": 67.77, "relative_strength": 0.893414, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.743249, "energy": 16.879727, "activity_lines": [ 66.081999, 66.992726, 65.789238, 64.649763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 61.52, "volume": 6114421, "typical_volume": 26110561.45, "trend": 63.841333, "fair_value": 67.939039, "relative_strength": 0.132356, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.53226, "energy": 17.506312, "activity_lines": [ 63.992666, 66.04709, 65.583333, 64.49415 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 62.700001, "volume": 6948490, "typical_volume": 26135093.55, "trend": 63.688, "fair_value": 68.098333, "relative_strength": -0.432256, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.424255, "energy": 22.980814, "activity_lines": [ 63.165333, 65.342727, 65.468476, 64.420516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 63.98, "volume": 6470122, "typical_volume": 18593467.65, "trend": 63.717333, "fair_value": 68.261667, "relative_strength": 0.821376, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.461175, "energy": 21.451964, "activity_lines": [ 63.16, 64.900363, 65.430714, 64.439355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }