{ "ticker": { "uuid": "357d8ed8-b6c1-4d63-8e8b-85c8d9b967e5", "symbol": "002445", "name": "Jiangyin Zhongnan Heavy Industries Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 50.684, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.24, "architecture_energy": 49.404, "architecture_maturity": 19.777, "architecture_confidence": 84.653, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.76, "rotation_up": 19.33, "upward_expansion": 7.52, "deceleration": 48.87, "rotation_down": 55.74, "downward_expansion": 78.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.844667, 2.880909, 3.143, 3.247312 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.95, "trend_reference": 3.249667, "distance_from_trend": -0.092215, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.455641, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.201316, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.542816, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.061151, "excess_performance": 0.053751, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.092215, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037901, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.201316, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.445617, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.035428, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.191043, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.061151, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.140354, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 222092124, "relative_activity": 0.382005, "balance": 1.140354, "dry_up": 0.412116, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10013, "annualized_volatility": 0.871985, "from_high_reference": -0.381551, "from_low_reference": 0.266094 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.249667, "fair_value_reference": 2.455641, "structural_low": 2.58, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.035406, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.070002, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.095652, "worst_return": -0.017123, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.121739, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.026312, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.152466, "worst_return": -0.120482, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.16087, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.101984, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.170404, "worst_return": 0.056225, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.326184, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.097152, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.632287, "worst_return": 0.02008, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.145078, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.091633, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.056277, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004484, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034934, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.016529, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.060976, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.090196, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.290909, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.167582, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040761, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.079114, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010274, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 2.45, "volume": 180137058, "typical_volume": 171653090.6, "trend": 2.471, "fair_value": 2.374872, "relative_strength": 2.344518, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.429878, "energy": 34.52659, "activity_lines": 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65.725427, "activity_lines": [ 2.918667, 3.153818, 3.390286, 3.354817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.65, "volume": 232408000, "typical_volume": 690142752.15, "trend": 3.225333, "fair_value": 2.44641, "relative_strength": -10.035156, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -50.727343, "energy": 71.747906, "activity_lines": [ 2.806, 3.020909, 3.310381, 3.31729 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.79, "volume": 287547523, "typical_volume": 704520128.3, "trend": 3.231333, "fair_value": 2.449038, "relative_strength": -5.55533, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.268682, "energy": 65.381377, "activity_lines": [ 2.774, 2.937091, 3.244429, 3.289204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.87, "volume": 216346845, "typical_volume": 707500251.4, "trend": 3.238, "fair_value": 2.452179, "relative_strength": -1.280626, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.437921, "energy": 56.306636, "activity_lines": [ 2.794667, 2.894364, 3.186048, 3.265892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.95, "volume": 222092124, "typical_volume": 581386096.85, "trend": 3.249667, "fair_value": 2.455641, "relative_strength": -3.542816, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.239581, "energy": 49.403958, "activity_lines": [ 2.844667, 2.880909, 3.143, 3.247312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }