{ "ticker": { "uuid": "357e19e4-8cf8-4dc0-88eb-8a2854f2bfeb", "symbol": "ZLE", "name": "BMO Low Volatility Emerging Markets Equity ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.071, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 29.341, "architecture_energy": 27.293, "architecture_maturity": 64.405, "architecture_confidence": 84.048, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.18, "rotation_up": 19.12, "upward_expansion": 54.05, "deceleration": 94.0, "rotation_down": 34.82, "downward_expansion": 20.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.926667, 27.439273, 27.133191, 26.341441 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 27.02, "trend_reference": 25.31, "distance_from_trend": 0.067562, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.519067, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.384288, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.814712, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.160653, "excess_performance": 0.040232, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.067562, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082533, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.384288, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044667, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.018147, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065344, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.160653, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.805611, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9700, "relative_activity": 0.756925, "balance": 0.805611, "dry_up": 1.082716, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043928, "annualized_volatility": 0.232738, "from_high_reference": -0.095716, "from_low_reference": 0.343849 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.31, "fair_value_reference": 19.519067, "structural_low": 22.43, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.007656, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.021227, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.092552, "worst_return": -0.031052, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.045944, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.028702, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.255178, "worst_return": -0.000575, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.070579, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.027141, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.387108, "worst_return": 0.031435, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.095813, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.009839, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.117715, "worst_return": 0.073912, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.031053, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039429, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.055706, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026604, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.003224, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003827, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021175, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019023, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.140802, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055186, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006996, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.099163, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.090762, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016936, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 15.447083, "volume": 15000, "typical_volume": 4340.0, "trend": 15.421776, "fair_value": 16.297148, "relative_strength": 3.475038, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.073037, "energy": 65.967812, "activity_lines": [ 28.508001, 28.061091, 26.781286, 25.854904 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.6, "volume": 31900, "typical_volume": 16160.0, "trend": 24.836313, "fair_value": 19.307089, "relative_strength": 3.571982, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.400545, "energy": 45.916518, "activity_lines": [ 27.85, 27.880728, 26.872905, 25.979569 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.040001, "volume": 4200, "typical_volume": 13485.0, "trend": 25.017667, "fair_value": 19.377173, "relative_strength": 4.882003, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.433893, "energy": 32.52147, "activity_lines": [ 27.428001, 27.778, 26.994905, 26.121742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.57, "volume": 9700, "typical_volume": 13055.0, "trend": 25.167, "fair_value": 19.446388, "relative_strength": 3.435938, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.917825, "energy": 26.395466, "activity_lines": [ 27.038667, 27.57, 27.051857, 26.221893 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.02, "volume": 9700, "typical_volume": 12815.0, "trend": 25.31, "fair_value": 19.519067, "relative_strength": 1.814712, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.34128, "energy": 27.293116, "activity_lines": [ 26.926667, 27.439273, 27.133191, 26.341441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }