{ "ticker": { "uuid": "357e5ae5-2149-4201-be18-9855e82e3afa", "symbol": "SRP", "name": "Serco Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 76.722, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.392, "architecture_energy": 25.072, "architecture_maturity": 71.603, "architecture_confidence": 87.888, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.17, "rotation_up": 30.51, "upward_expansion": 20.2, "deceleration": 44.15, "rotation_down": 29.06, "downward_expansion": 67.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 246.44, 240.381818, 249.686243, 260.988826 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 265.8, "trend_reference": 274.741043, "distance_from_trend": -0.032544, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 201.488547, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.319182, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.61677, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.105561, "excess_performance": -0.156797, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.032544, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026519, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.319182, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074645, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.066168, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083334, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.105561, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.292606, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11923089, "relative_activity": 1.152406, "balance": 1.292606, "dry_up": 1.144769, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057388, "annualized_volatility": 0.289345, "from_high_reference": -0.184079, "from_low_reference": 0.249188 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 274.741043, "fair_value_reference": 201.488547, 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"gate": "down", "direction": -69.288585, "energy": 86.828113, "activity_lines": [ 227.493333, 237.029091, 254.567348, 266.305212 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 240.6, "volume": 8585201, "typical_volume": 10706124.25, "trend": 276.785772, "fair_value": 200.231527, "relative_strength": -14.189799, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.279881, "energy": 63.895155, "activity_lines": [ 231.453333, 236.010909, 251.764275, 263.897588 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 241.6, "volume": 13492655, "typical_volume": 10351281.95, "trend": 275.700039, "fair_value": 200.76998, "relative_strength": -14.841779, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.890261, "energy": 56.060855, "activity_lines": [ 235.533333, 235.669091, 249.385813, 261.627538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 265.8, "volume": 11923089, "typical_volume": 10346260.9, "trend": 274.741043, "fair_value": 201.488547, "relative_strength": -6.61677, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.392201, "energy": 25.072234, "activity_lines": [ 246.44, 240.381818, 249.686243, 260.988826 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }