{ "ticker": { "uuid": "35828228-0a1e-45b2-9b62-8ee21cb6a5ee", "symbol": "601588", "name": "Beijing North Star Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.255, "architecture_energy": 46.105, "architecture_maturity": 9.746, "architecture_confidence": 93.431, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.69, "rotation_up": 16.85, "upward_expansion": 8.06, "deceleration": 43.85, "rotation_down": 56.75, "downward_expansion": 81.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.659333, 1.675091, 1.765905, 1.790559 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.68, "trend_reference": 1.81, "distance_from_trend": -0.071823, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.81552, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.074645, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.117494, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.061453, "excess_performance": -0.018249, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.071823, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021092, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.074645, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.196928, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.081175, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108805, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.061453, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.571355, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 134073366, "relative_activity": 0.56699, "balance": 0.571355, "dry_up": 0.572851, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092033, "annualized_volatility": 0.435236, "from_high_reference": -0.263158, "from_low_reference": 0.070064 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.81, "fair_value_reference": 1.81552, "structural_low": 1.57, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.000327, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": -0.011001, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.166667, "worst_return": -0.201183, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.013497, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.03619, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.688889, "worst_return": -0.154412, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.008696, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.019074, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.428104, "worst_return": -0.181818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039548, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.073864, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.116162, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028409, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027624, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.12234, "active": false }, { 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"energy": 27.232471, "activity_lines": [ 1.732667, 1.832182, 1.851619, 1.845118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.65, "volume": 120857208, "typical_volume": 242136435.85, "trend": 1.822667, "fair_value": 1.825394, "relative_strength": -12.231321, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.282955, "energy": 45.978242, "activity_lines": [ 1.683333, 1.787818, 1.832048, 1.833634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.61, "volume": 140816293, "typical_volume": 242942191.7, "trend": 1.818667, "fair_value": 1.82289, "relative_strength": -8.645753, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.01541, "energy": 58.915797, "activity_lines": [ 1.645333, 1.742545, 1.809762, 1.819914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.62, "volume": 136123610, "typical_volume": 241462122.0, "trend": 1.814333, "fair_value": 1.820261, "relative_strength": -9.000104, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.289746, "energy": 67.410728, "activity_lines": [ 1.63, 1.707273, 1.789857, 1.807097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.69, "volume": 130824000, "typical_volume": 240201596.95, "trend": 1.812, "fair_value": 1.818333, "relative_strength": -5.23819, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.15516, "energy": 58.108034, "activity_lines": [ 1.647333, 1.690909, 1.777905, 1.799075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.68, "volume": 134073366, "typical_volume": 236465057.55, "trend": 1.81, "fair_value": 1.81552, "relative_strength": -8.117494, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.254764, "energy": 46.104869, "activity_lines": [ 1.659333, 1.675091, 1.765905, 1.790559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }