{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3585a263-6dc4-4c01-b905-b6d29f7d97a2", "symbol": "300164", "name": "Tong Petrotech Corp.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 82.532, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -23.816, "architecture_energy": 28.774, "architecture_maturity": 69.906, "architecture_confidence": 53.846, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.51, "rotation_up": 43.73, "upward_expansion": 24.08, "deceleration": 41.33, "rotation_down": 20.46, "downward_expansion": 55.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.154, 10.258, 10.613857, 11.637269 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 10.79, "trend_reference": 12.141667, "distance_from_trend": -0.111325, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.079103, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.774933, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 12.803447, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.162267, "excess_performance": -0.169667, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.111325, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.123292, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.774933, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.58492, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.128034, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.244228, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.162267, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.840738, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 750486084, "relative_activity": 1.468566, "balance": 0.840738, "dry_up": 1.924448, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.158124, "annualized_volatility": 0.885219, "from_high_reference": -0.584361, "from_low_reference": 1.149402 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.141667, "fair_value_reference": 6.079103, "structural_low": 7.53, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.020305, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": 0.024017, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.788557, "worst_return": -0.07967, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.07056, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.107805, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.392442, "worst_return": -0.072776, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.145985, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.104796, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.535533, "worst_return": -0.035211, "sufficient": true }, { 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.48, "volume": 1122406152, "typical_volume": 509635676.75, "trend": 11.535667, "fair_value": 5.946218, "relative_strength": 17.874423, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.472129, "energy": 52.516131, "activity_lines": [ 9.126, 9.237455, 10.863476, 11.675634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.94, "volume": 1087901355, "typical_volume": 515131900.05, "trend": 11.753, "fair_value": 5.993333, "relative_strength": 32.230269, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.918214, "energy": 29.172257, "activity_lines": [ 10.15, 9.644182, 10.778, 11.70172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.93, "volume": 973032494, "typical_volume": 514347144.95, "trend": 11.966, "fair_value": 6.039231, "relative_strength": 32.498998, "stage": 2, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.285002, "energy": 28.114186, "activity_lines": [ 10.972, 10.056182, 10.731381, 11.71314 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.79, "volume": 750486084, "typical_volume": 511033149.55, "trend": 12.141667, "fair_value": 6.079103, "relative_strength": 12.803447, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.816475, "energy": 28.774145, "activity_lines": [ 11.154, 10.258, 10.613857, 11.637269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }