{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3586bde1-d2ff-46e7-9325-6077a0f1317b", "symbol": "KOOL", "name": "SPINNAKER ETF SERIES NORTH SHORE EQUITY ROTATION ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 76.518, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.168, "architecture_energy": 38.422, "architecture_maturity": 34.702, "architecture_confidence": 50.922, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.1, "rotation_up": 43.32, "upward_expansion": 68.21, "deceleration": 70.34, "rotation_down": 24.64, "downward_expansion": 8.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.372767, 14.309315, 14.297295, 14.096173 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 14.7101, "trend_reference": 13.815498, "distance_from_trend": 0.064753, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.792952, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.247364, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.255826, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.113363, "excess_performance": -0.012262, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.064753, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039323, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.247364, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012854, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.012558, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035527, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.113363, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.147196, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32299, "relative_activity": 1.297526, "balance": 1.147196, "dry_up": 0.658525, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025381, "annualized_volatility": 0.125735, "from_high_reference": -0.006074, "from_low_reference": 0.220557 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.815498, "fair_value_reference": 11.792952, "structural_low": 12.57, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.002422, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.005631, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.002595, "worst_return": 0.002248, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.047483, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.040739, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.047483, "worst_return": 0.047483, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.137993, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.024723, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.137993, "worst_return": 0.137993, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"direction": 41.914012, "energy": 28.188487, "activity_lines": [ 14.242348, 14.33104, 14.079684, 13.8354 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 14.1881, "volume": 11498, "typical_volume": 37390.4, "trend": 13.556274, "fair_value": 11.685308, "relative_strength": -1.177563, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.078844, "energy": 25.488275, "activity_lines": [ 14.205821, 14.298931, 14.116037, 13.878934 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.4226, "volume": 16178, "typical_volume": 36766.8, "trend": 13.612787, "fair_value": 11.708311, "relative_strength": -0.897132, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.962023, "energy": 31.014013, "activity_lines": [ 14.272949, 14.310728, 14.169902, 13.934826 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.2036, "volume": 7275, "typical_volume": 27572.0, "trend": 13.665713, "fair_value": 11.729105, "relative_strength": -0.864255, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.020331, "energy": 24.04542, "activity_lines": [ 14.252319, 14.282073, 14.198111, 13.972943 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.1104, "volume": 6038, "typical_volume": 23430.1, "trend": 13.708164, "fair_value": 11.748785, "relative_strength": -0.922168, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.002442, "energy": 22.710195, "activity_lines": [ 14.205188, 14.24155, 14.213672, 14.001633 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.22, "volume": 19958, "typical_volume": 23863.6, "trend": 13.756558, "fair_value": 11.769041, "relative_strength": -1.211004, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.879472, "energy": 18.773142, "activity_lines": [ 14.21238, 14.22808, 14.234966, 14.034654 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.7101, "volume": 32299, "typical_volume": 24892.75, "trend": 13.815498, "fair_value": 11.792952, "relative_strength": -1.255826, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.16845, "energy": 38.422458, "activity_lines": [ 14.372767, 14.309315, 14.297295, 14.096173 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }