{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "358cd465-d688-4cb0-8405-f6dcb1eaece2",
    "symbol": "HODLX",
    "name": "21Shares Crypto Basket 10 Core ETP",
    "exchange": "PAR",
    "country": "FR",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FCHI",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -44.619,
    "architecture_energy": 36.005,
    "architecture_maturity": 34.269,
    "architecture_confidence": 60.115,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 36.52,
        "rotation_up": 26.53,
        "upward_expansion": 17.07,
        "deceleration": 66.48,
        "rotation_down": 34.4,
        "downward_expansion": 62.4
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        17.892094,
        17.744729,
        18.515252,
        18.944918
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 18.0543,
    "trend_reference": 19.7784,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.087171,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 22.781337,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.207496,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -30.469063,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.061763,
    "excess_performance": -0.115075,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.087171,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.126009,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.207496,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.183809,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.304691,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.084957,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.061763,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 4.750139,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 38146,
      "relative_activity": 11.191269,
      "balance": 4.750139,
      "dry_up": 3.058412,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.055207,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.367002,
      "from_high_reference": -0.516078,
      "from_low_reference": 0.07928
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 19.7784,
      "fair_value_reference": 22.781337,
      "structural_low": 16.7281,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": -0.013199,
        "positive_rate": 0.428571,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.428571,
        "median_excess_return": 0.017366,
        "regime_survival": 0.428571,
        "best_return": 0.179425,
        "worst_return": -0.188234,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.039927,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": 0.043589,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.247757,
        "worst_return": -0.082608,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.167688,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.273458,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.269854,
        "worst_return": 0.115043,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.772876,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.74215,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 1.233295,
        "worst_return": 0.312457,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-11-29",
        "end": "2025-02-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.03022,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-02-21",
        "end": "2025-03-21",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.188234,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-28",
        "end": "2025-05-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.072794,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-05-09",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.051186,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-06-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.0312,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-20",
        "end": "2025-07-18",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.176865,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-07-25",
        "end": "2025-08-08",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.029032,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-15",
        "end": "2025-10-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.048135,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-10-31",
        "end": "2025-11-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.134302,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-11-21",
        "end": "2025-12-05",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.067083,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-12-12",
        "end": "2026-05-15",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.156959,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-05-22",
        "end": "2026-05-29",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.047721,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-06-05",
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.07613,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-31",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.02826,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 187.1,
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        "relative_strength": -2.028046,
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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        "date": "2023-08-25",
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        "volume": 3303,
        "typical_volume": 2593.9,
        "trend": 24.165707,
        "fair_value": 22.054917,
        "relative_strength": -24.938518,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -34.321606,
        "energy": 25.50945,
        "activity_lines": [
          20.894434,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 21.6047,
        "volume": 883,
        "typical_volume": 2503.9,
        "trend": 23.718073,
        "fair_value": 22.128858,
        "relative_strength": -21.973384,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -26.973997,
        "energy": 27.122348,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 21.7717,
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        "typical_volume": 2567.7,
        "trend": 23.41542,
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        "relative_strength": -19.309405,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -8.87591,
        "energy": 19.071702,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "volume": 2511,
        "typical_volume": 2561.65,
        "trend": 23.0364,
        "fair_value": 22.271338,
        "relative_strength": -22.543212,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -12.002077,
        "energy": 15.399874,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "volume": 60,
        "typical_volume": 2329.95,
        "trend": 22.62998,
        "fair_value": 22.33296,
        "relative_strength": -26.282877,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -24.742889,
        "energy": 14.283391,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 16.8265,
        "volume": 3326,
        "typical_volume": 2433.2,
        "trend": 22.217407,
        "fair_value": 22.375252,
        "relative_strength": -38.132129,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -71.907452,
        "energy": 57.962813,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 17.675301,
        "volume": 236,
        "typical_volume": 2340.7,
        "trend": 21.87309,
        "fair_value": 22.428315,
        "relative_strength": -35.441647,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
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        "direction": -77.745435,
        "energy": 81.913074,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "relative_strength": -35.634911,
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -73.366965,
        "energy": 87.296386,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 16.864901,
        "volume": 260,
        "typical_volume": 1997.0,
        "trend": 21.333124,
        "fair_value": 22.510463,
        "relative_strength": -37.4391,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -79.704394,
        "energy": 92.321481,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.437081,
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          19.410652,
          20.047596
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 17.5166,
        "volume": 4,
        "typical_volume": 1870.25,
        "trend": 21.055914,
        "fair_value": 22.553459,
        "relative_strength": -35.342201,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -67.429356,
        "energy": 86.797906,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.334447,
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          19.801369
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 18.030001,
        "volume": 1131,
        "typical_volume": 1851.3,
        "trend": 20.796074,
        "fair_value": 22.597013,
        "relative_strength": -31.290045,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -65.089126,
        "energy": 74.383252,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.578961,
          18.100399,
          19.078809,
          19.606149
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 17.762501,
        "volume": 201,
        "typical_volume": 1802.9,
        "trend": 20.548717,
        "fair_value": 22.641578,
        "relative_strength": -31.412562,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -62.847445,
        "energy": 57.733589,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.654074,
          17.889719,
          18.918295,
          19.410435
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 18.1075,
        "volume": 1267,
        "typical_volume": 1751.1,
        "trend": 20.329067,
        "fair_value": 22.688838,
        "relative_strength": -29.484797,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -48.76176,
        "energy": 42.963675,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.838374,
          17.811624,
          18.792939,
          19.252937
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 17.5581,
        "volume": 2085,
        "typical_volume": 1684.2,
        "trend": 20.05763,
        "fair_value": 22.733775,
        "relative_strength": -31.747452,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -50.228942,
        "energy": 39.553943,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.80564,
          17.70026,
          18.623878,
          19.074165
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 18.0543,
        "volume": 38146,
        "typical_volume": 3408.55,
        "trend": 19.7784,
        "fair_value": 22.781337,
        "relative_strength": -30.469063,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -44.618739,
        "energy": 36.005024,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.892094,
          17.744729,
          18.515252,
          18.944918
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}