{ "ticker": { "uuid": "358d526f-3c75-4051-8de6-cf8c5679a75b", "symbol": "NBX", "name": "Norwegian Block Exchange AS", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 86.238, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 7.718, "architecture_energy": 12.831, "architecture_maturity": 14.847, "architecture_confidence": 65.206, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.54, "rotation_up": 19.91, "upward_expansion": 47.13, "deceleration": 81.1, "rotation_down": 35.65, "downward_expansion": 27.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.5562, 0.578291, 0.585676, 0.558772 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.54, "trend_reference": 0.519817, "distance_from_trend": 0.038828, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.578075, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.065865, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.43494, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.326781, "excess_performance": 0.201788, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.038828, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085552, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.065865, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054367, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.064349, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078037, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.326781, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.235549, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4896972, "relative_activity": 0.644726, "balance": 0.235549, "dry_up": 0.754559, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.165883, "annualized_volatility": 0.76139, "from_high_reference": -0.339853, "from_low_reference": 0.8 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.519817, "fair_value_reference": 0.578075, "structural_low": 0.3, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.054054, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.087694, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.268499, "worst_return": -0.177778, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.118605, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.146009, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.310782, "worst_return": -0.288889, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.203488, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.26646, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.406977, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02148, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.362288, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.088346, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.13253, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.049683, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.433154, "energy": 30.410764, "activity_lines": [ 0.620333, 0.610582, 0.585152, 0.547054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.571, "volume": 4935475, "typical_volume": 7422741.45, "trend": 0.507683, "fair_value": 0.582825, "relative_strength": 1.856555, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.446939, "energy": 25.768429, "activity_lines": [ 0.6078, 0.604745, 0.587969, 0.551474 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.571, "volume": 6289253, "typical_volume": 7511274.55, "trend": 0.514383, "fair_value": 0.581113, "relative_strength": -0.389972, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.43289, "energy": 19.474842, "activity_lines": [ 0.5948, 0.599436, 0.589871, 0.555559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.542, "volume": 6803095, "typical_volume": 7623721.8, "trend": 0.517817, "fair_value": 0.579523, "relative_strength": -5.698677, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.671198, "energy": 14.333377, "activity_lines": [ 0.573267, 0.588927, 0.58816, 0.557341 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.54, "volume": 4896972, "typical_volume": 7595430.35, "trend": 0.519817, "fair_value": 0.578075, "relative_strength": -6.43494, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.717525, "energy": 12.830541, "activity_lines": [ 0.5562, 0.578291, 0.585676, 0.558772 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }