{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3591827d-1fd7-458b-b51a-c3ea276d160e", "symbol": "2521", "name": "Listed Index Fund US Equity (S&P500) Currency Hedge", "exchange": "JPX", "country": "JP", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^N225", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.65, "architecture_energy": 52.615, "architecture_maturity": 43.412, "architecture_confidence": 62.795, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.41, "rotation_up": 51.43, "upward_expansion": 80.9, "deceleration": 67.09, "rotation_down": 28.05, "downward_expansion": 7.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 2129.866667, 2123.127273, 2109.280952, 2073.831742 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2172.0, "trend_reference": 2034.125338, "distance_from_trend": 0.067781, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1745.963988, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.244012, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.633013, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.117859, "excess_performance": -0.091399, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.067781, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026805, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.244012, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003494, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.09633, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069456, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.117859, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.627411, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 129330, "relative_activity": 2.306764, "balance": 1.627411, "dry_up": 1.868438, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018593, "annualized_volatility": 0.113353, "from_high_reference": -0.011829, "from_low_reference": 0.206667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2034.125338, "fair_value_reference": 1745.963988, "structural_low": 1800.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.012742, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.016704, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.06645, "worst_return": -0.051578, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.024409, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.044762, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.074919, "worst_return": -0.094746, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.073073, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.052806, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.114646, "worst_return": 0.032513, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.114246, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.002156, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.183661, "worst_return": -0.162233, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028414, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030202, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033655, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.049107, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000569, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.05685, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.054857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.041117, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005908, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032391, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031065, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.000945, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.039234, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1382.653198, "volume": 730960, "typical_volume": 1190119.0, "trend": 1349.354468, "fair_value": 1348.643066, "relative_strength": -3.81863, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", 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129330, "typical_volume": 56065.55, "trend": 2034.125338, "fair_value": 1745.963988, "relative_strength": -9.633013, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.649995, "energy": 52.61461, "activity_lines": [ 2129.866667, 2123.127273, 2109.280952, 2073.831742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }