{ "ticker": { "uuid": "35969273-daec-4fc8-9986-fd5a27e4bf9e", "symbol": "ALFOR", "name": "FORSEE POWER", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.806, "architecture_energy": 48.982, "architecture_maturity": 11.229, "architecture_confidence": 90.74, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.89, "rotation_up": 14.52, "upward_expansion": 9.42, "deceleration": 40.83, "rotation_down": 59.02, "downward_expansion": 82.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.234933, 0.239182, 0.25101, 0.254102 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.24, "trend_reference": 0.256783, "distance_from_trend": -0.06536, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.983301, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.755924, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.717654, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.04, "excess_performance": -0.093311, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.06536, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043994, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.755924, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017682, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.197177, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037598, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.04, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.338489, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 91660, "relative_activity": 0.281524, "balance": 1.338489, "dry_up": 1.112801, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116827, "annualized_volatility": 0.356117, "from_high_reference": -0.441211, "from_low_reference": 0.191067 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.256783, "fair_value_reference": 0.983301, "structural_low": 0.2015, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.034545, "positive_rate": 0.344828, "directional_follow_through": 0.655172, "median_excess_return": -0.052766, "regime_survival": 0.896552, "best_return": 0.602469, "worst_return": -0.303797, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.084746, "positive_rate": 0.181818, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": -0.086604, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.142857, "worst_return": -0.615504, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.194742, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.246308, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.012658, "worst_return": -0.616117, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.388946, "energy": 38.59262, "activity_lines": [ 0.247533, 0.255155, 0.261467, 0.261316 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.2215, "volume": 482778, "typical_volume": 336086.9, "trend": 0.26065, "fair_value": 1.041045, "relative_strength": -25.610112, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.361031, "energy": 55.931295, "activity_lines": [ 0.238067, 0.247964, 0.257631, 0.258675 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.227, "volume": 309578, "typical_volume": 335735.3, "trend": 0.259117, "fair_value": 1.021378, "relative_strength": -23.129363, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.163487, "energy": 58.918401, "activity_lines": [ 0.232333, 0.242764, 0.25449, 0.256504 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.24, "volume": 565231, "typical_volume": 333997.05, "trend": 0.258117, "fair_value": 1.002596, "relative_strength": -18.895247, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.753393, "energy": 54.340122, "activity_lines": [ 0.233133, 0.240709, 0.25271, 0.255271 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.24, "volume": 91660, "typical_volume": 325585.4, "trend": 0.256783, "fair_value": 0.983301, "relative_strength": -19.717654, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.805706, "energy": 48.981624, "activity_lines": [ 0.234933, 0.239182, 0.25101, 0.254102 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }