{ "ticker": { "uuid": "35a1a4a5-3542-4423-b07c-e21cfedef26b", "symbol": "RSE", "name": "Riverstone Energy Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.768, "architecture_energy": 29.564, "architecture_maturity": 57.878, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.72, "rotation_up": 27.64, "upward_expansion": 21.27, "deceleration": 35.33, "rotation_down": 33.94, "downward_expansion": 62.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 584.933333, 577.672727, 590.433333, 620.645161 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 602.0, "trend_reference": 655.616667, "distance_from_trend": -0.081781, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 766.791667, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.214911, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -23.079084, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.13877, "excess_performance": -0.190005, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.081781, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068506, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.214911, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030766, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.230791, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076755, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.13877, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.331916, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12498, "relative_activity": 0.279934, "balance": 0.331916, "dry_up": 0.177333, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062133, "annualized_volatility": 0.521416, "from_high_reference": -0.392274, "from_low_reference": 0.228571 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 655.616667, "fair_value_reference": 766.791667, "structural_low": 490.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.003863, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.004333, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.16388, "worst_return": -0.06734, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.032033, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.031875, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.219723, "worst_return": -0.230769, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.030733, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.056886, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.209809, "worst_return": -0.206128, "sufficient": true }, 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612.942857, 642.653763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 568.0, "volume": 2862, "typical_volume": 52776.65, "trend": 669.516667, "fair_value": 766.375, "relative_strength": -27.792926, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.123423, "energy": 38.693836, "activity_lines": [ 568.733333, 568.881818, 604.778571, 635.794624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 568.0, "volume": 7747, "typical_volume": 49116.6, "trend": 664.35, "fair_value": 766.567308, "relative_strength": -27.962222, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.265498, "energy": 32.348045, "activity_lines": [ 569.333333, 568.190909, 597.471429, 629.245161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 589.0, "volume": 8562, "typical_volume": 44714.25, "trend": 659.95, "fair_value": 766.637821, "relative_strength": -25.357295, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.409845, "energy": 44.571536, "activity_lines": [ 575.733333, 571.9, 592.988095, 624.383871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 602.0, "volume": 12498, "typical_volume": 44646.25, "trend": 655.616667, "fair_value": 766.791667, "relative_strength": -23.079084, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.768297, "energy": 29.563857, "activity_lines": [ 584.933333, 577.672727, 590.433333, 620.645161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }