{ "ticker": { "uuid": "35a9c289-ccb3-45cc-909c-b1bcfbf9fa2f", "symbol": "XIN", "name": "iShares MSCI EAFE Index ETF (CAD-Hedged)", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.881, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.211, "architecture_energy": 68.184, "architecture_maturity": 41.115, "architecture_confidence": 81.723, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.83, "rotation_up": 65.8, "upward_expansion": 87.71, "deceleration": 49.89, "rotation_down": 21.97, "downward_expansion": 12.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.847333, 46.572162, 45.864441, 45.29396 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 47.709999, "trend_reference": 44.70173, "distance_from_trend": 0.067296, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.364165, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.276892, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.248022, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.074792, "excess_performance": -0.04563, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.067296, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03538, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.276892, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047431, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.01248, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026246, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.074792, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.964126, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 49200, "relative_activity": 0.502862, "balance": 1.964126, "dry_up": 0.872854, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018796, "annualized_volatility": 0.151176, "from_high_reference": -0.000628, "from_low_reference": 0.237268 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.70173, "fair_value_reference": 37.364165, "structural_low": 41.110001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": 0.010224, "positive_rate": 0.619048, "directional_follow_through": 0.619048, "median_excess_return": 0.004238, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.075324, "worst_return": -0.087448, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.034338, "positive_rate": 0.733333, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.00649, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.100748, "worst_return": -0.042938, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.051886, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.004327, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.1511, "worst_return": -0.093842, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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45.271185, 44.643448, 44.332523 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 46.790001, "volume": 5400, "typical_volume": 108825.0, "trend": 43.968775, "fair_value": 36.842172, "relative_strength": -0.618172, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.200378, "energy": 80.351271, "activity_lines": [ 46.163929, 45.622423, 44.879772, 44.526037 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 46.52, "volume": 108100, "typical_volume": 109780.0, "trend": 44.134402, "fair_value": 36.94758, "relative_strength": -1.234279, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.56334, "energy": 78.112809, "activity_lines": [ 46.384581, 45.870309, 45.080097, 44.690632 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 46.049999, "volume": 128800, "typical_volume": 110635.0, "trend": 44.273213, "fair_value": 37.047168, "relative_strength": -2.002866, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.957262, "energy": 67.026767, "activity_lines": [ 46.320918, 45.982309, 45.230135, 44.814219 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.380001, "volume": 84400, "typical_volume": 106305.0, "trend": 44.42073, "fair_value": 37.146611, "relative_strength": -1.462988, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.000034, "energy": 64.759609, "activity_lines": [ 46.344, 46.123016, 45.409031, 44.950141 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 46.599998, "volume": 79200, "typical_volume": 98925.0, "trend": 44.560063, "fair_value": 37.252716, "relative_strength": -0.499847, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.941546, "energy": 51.852414, "activity_lines": [ 46.433333, 46.261224, 45.593022, 45.090739 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.709999, "volume": 49200, "typical_volume": 97840.0, "trend": 44.70173, "fair_value": 37.364165, "relative_strength": -1.248022, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.210866, "energy": 68.184143, "activity_lines": [ 46.847333, 46.572162, 45.864441, 45.29396 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }