{ "ticker": { "uuid": "35aa115c-2c04-45b0-968f-7dda8ee93d27", "symbol": "XST", "name": "iShares S&P/TSX Capped Consumer Staples Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 49.028, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.701, "architecture_energy": 38.382, "architecture_maturity": 25.432, "architecture_confidence": 57.562, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.7, "rotation_up": 49.99, "upward_expansion": 75.69, "deceleration": 66.2, "rotation_down": 20.24, "downward_expansion": 4.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 67.474666, 67.344376, 66.161473, 65.699369 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 66.989998, "trend_reference": 65.211823, "distance_from_trend": 0.027268, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 55.6471, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.203836, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.452527, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.014203, "excess_performance": -0.106218, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.027268, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021449, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.203836, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034183, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.064525, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038054, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.014203, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.402577, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 131600, "relative_activity": 1.733289, "balance": 1.402577, "dry_up": 1.169246, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030848, "annualized_volatility": 0.15354, "from_high_reference": -0.036115, "from_low_reference": 0.155417 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 65.211823, "fair_value_reference": 55.6471, "structural_low": 61.544921, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": -0.002671, "positive_rate": 0.477273, "directional_follow_through": 0.477273, "median_excess_return": -0.002623, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.072645, "worst_return": -0.072167, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.007288, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.010002, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.098194, "worst_return": -0.046276, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.064179, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.019454, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.141066, "worst_return": -0.020503, "sufficient": true }, { 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72.19156, "energy": 73.507287, "activity_lines": [ 67.583169, 66.751492, 65.502089, 65.235006 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 66.989998, "volume": 66300, "typical_volume": 73350.0, "trend": 64.932687, "fair_value": 55.332579, "relative_strength": -4.369437, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.191195, "energy": 43.894236, "activity_lines": [ 67.479332, 66.970825, 65.698675, 65.375248 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 68.050003, "volume": 80800, "typical_volume": 73880.0, "trend": 65.083437, "fair_value": 55.497008, "relative_strength": -2.194931, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.316094, "energy": 45.631084, "activity_lines": [ 67.628666, 67.298583, 65.986804, 65.576365 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 66.989998, "volume": 131600, "typical_volume": 75925.0, "trend": 65.211823, "fair_value": 55.6471, "relative_strength": -6.452527, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.701112, "energy": 38.381807, "activity_lines": [ 67.474666, 67.344376, 66.161473, 65.699369 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }