{ "ticker": { "uuid": "35ac5393-03b3-42ff-b214-b8c0303d86ec", "symbol": "SP20", "name": "iShares S&P 500 Top 20 UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 62.35, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.008, "architecture_energy": 50.941, "architecture_maturity": 39.214, "architecture_confidence": 55.793, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.83, "rotation_up": 52.07, "upward_expansion": 77.57, "deceleration": 67.27, "rotation_down": 24.8, "downward_expansion": 6.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.724667, 5.681582, 5.647512, 5.524447 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.906, "trend_reference": 5.378033, "distance_from_trend": 0.098171, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.98882, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.183847, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.931829, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.164432, "excess_performance": -0.00646, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.098171, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025631, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.183847, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022265, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.039318, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035628, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.164432, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.507396, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 190107, "relative_activity": 1.961795, "balance": 0.507396, "dry_up": 2.578812, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028133, "annualized_volatility": 0.190301, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.243368 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.378033, "fair_value_reference": 4.98882, "structural_low": 4.75, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.027697, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.017222, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.027697, "worst_return": 0.027697, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076166, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-20", "close": 4.984, "volume": 77880, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-27", "close": 4.9935, "volume": 37602, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-03", "close": 5.005, "volume": 44404, "typical_volume": null, 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{ "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.74, "volume": 187267, "typical_volume": 58462.55, "trend": 5.32, "fair_value": 4.954104, "relative_strength": -5.14966, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.348673, "energy": 38.518399, "activity_lines": [ 5.634333, 5.667127, 5.548055, 5.431391 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.672, "volume": 163754, "typical_volume": 64588.5, "trend": 5.3347, "fair_value": 4.962753, "relative_strength": -4.852325, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.232048, "energy": 35.372337, "activity_lines": [ 5.652667, 5.663236, 5.574486, 5.454101 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.64, "volume": 199755, "typical_volume": 69575.65, "trend": 5.3466, "fair_value": 4.970815, "relative_strength": -5.136812, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.72767, "energy": 40.65574, "activity_lines": [ 5.653733, 5.653091, 5.594593, 5.473798 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.584, "volume": 445979, "typical_volume": 88735.65, "trend": 5.358333, "fair_value": 4.978029, "relative_strength": -6.573768, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.137743, "energy": 36.39419, "activity_lines": [ 5.638733, 5.636091, 5.606948, 5.489114 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.906, "volume": 190107, "typical_volume": 96904.6, "trend": 5.378033, "fair_value": 4.98882, "relative_strength": -3.931829, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.007936, "energy": 50.941384, "activity_lines": [ 5.724667, 5.681582, 5.647512, 5.524447 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }