{ "ticker": { "uuid": "35b12471-a6f4-455c-b8b6-0a7ecaa89ab6", "symbol": "NRK", "name": "Nuveen New York AMT-Free Quality Municipal Income Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 67.515, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.933, "architecture_energy": 18.294, "architecture_maturity": 84.521, "architecture_confidence": 75.421, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.75, "rotation_up": 24.48, "upward_expansion": 55.81, "deceleration": 88.2, "rotation_down": 36.92, "downward_expansion": 21.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.425668, 10.484672, 10.472731, 10.399205 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 10.46, "trend_reference": 10.279262, "distance_from_trend": 0.017583, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.33365, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.120676, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.19262, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.057588, "excess_performance": -0.068037, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.017583, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027266, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.120676, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037277, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.061926, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048233, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.057588, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.794012, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1398645, "relative_activity": 1.093496, "balance": 0.794012, "dry_up": 0.960797, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020782, "annualized_volatility": 0.109845, "from_high_reference": -0.026016, "from_low_reference": 0.202452 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.279262, "fair_value_reference": 9.33365, "structural_low": 9.768897, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.012589, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": -0.00424, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.03597, "worst_return": -0.018243, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.018151, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.033787, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.060968, "worst_return": -0.046937, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.028984, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.087243, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.084445, "worst_return": -0.033428, "sufficient": false }, { 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10.426861, 10.316542 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.605021, "volume": 958459, "typical_volume": 1385982.95, "trend": 10.179592, "fair_value": 9.280907, "relative_strength": -2.6643, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.931697, "energy": 64.730781, "activity_lines": [ 10.600703, 10.542516, 10.452721, 10.346101 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.6, "volume": 1053792, "typical_volume": 1366831.9, "trend": 10.213463, "fair_value": 9.294585, "relative_strength": -1.202481, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.62183, "energy": 50.667543, "activity_lines": [ 10.60666, 10.559461, 10.476039, 10.373224 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.32, "volume": 1123542, "typical_volume": 1297841.8, "trend": 10.2364, "fair_value": 9.30652, "relative_strength": -3.263174, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.635906, "energy": 24.951645, "activity_lines": [ 10.511988, 10.525568, 10.47093, 10.380097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.33, "volume": 1339683, "typical_volume": 1268580.95, "trend": 10.257426, "fair_value": 9.319511, "relative_strength": -4.163881, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.276942, "energy": 15.327662, "activity_lines": [ 10.439651, 10.494149, 10.466158, 10.386136 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.46, "volume": 1398645, "typical_volume": 1279057.8, "trend": 10.279262, "fair_value": 9.33365, "relative_strength": -6.19262, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.932682, "energy": 18.293577, "activity_lines": [ 10.425668, 10.484672, 10.472731, 10.399205 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }