{ "ticker": { "uuid": "35b86549-668f-4f8d-a18c-9dd49fb57618", "symbol": "IVZ", "name": "Invesco Plc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.913, "architecture_energy": 75.244, "architecture_maturity": 20.571, "architecture_confidence": 81.349, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.86, "rotation_up": 75.0, "upward_expansion": 91.85, "deceleration": 42.42, "rotation_down": 11.51, "downward_expansion": 16.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.288667, 29.313273, 28.295604, 27.399851 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 31.58, "trend_reference": 26.714322, "distance_from_trend": 0.182137, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.37707, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.718446, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 11.488059, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.196212, "excess_performance": 0.070587, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.182137, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045654, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.718446, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.12507, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.114881, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016383, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.196212, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.963184, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27322446, "relative_activity": 1.053993, "balance": 0.963184, "dry_up": 1.021924, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068785, "annualized_volatility": 0.298717, "from_high_reference": -0.0298, "from_low_reference": 0.601538 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.714322, "fair_value_reference": 18.37707, "structural_low": 21.648378, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.016393, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.001772, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.104934, "worst_return": -0.174054, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.047715, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.016985, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.157872, "worst_return": -0.173, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.122251, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.015278, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.276925, "worst_return": -0.109447, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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28.104727, 27.162088, 26.649444 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.93, "volume": 21617995, "typical_volume": 25539374.3, "trend": 26.496346, "fair_value": 18.16764, "relative_strength": 11.527462, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.1409, "energy": 60.392465, "activity_lines": [ 29.019333, 28.477091, 27.529249, 26.878265 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.6, "volume": 31416114, "typical_volume": 25834948.15, "trend": 26.599076, "fair_value": 18.26585, "relative_strength": 8.685024, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.993957, "energy": 64.740419, "activity_lines": [ 29.438667, 28.738364, 27.834285, 27.078501 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.58, "volume": 27322446, "typical_volume": 25922808.4, "trend": 26.714322, "fair_value": 18.37707, "relative_strength": 11.488059, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.912755, "energy": 75.244366, "activity_lines": [ 30.288667, 29.313273, 28.295604, 27.399851 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }