{ "ticker": { "uuid": "35bac422-1e33-4ecb-986e-b3e1e582d716", "symbol": "688288", "name": "Hangzhou Hopechart IoT Technology Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.275, "architecture_energy": 64.216, "architecture_maturity": 63.514, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.53, "rotation_up": 23.44, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 50.6, "rotation_down": 59.99, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.931333, 17.425455, 19.458719, 21.205508 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 18.190001, "trend_reference": 23.504101, "distance_from_trend": -0.226092, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.46175, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.190179, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.922579, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.325797, "excess_performance": -0.282593, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.226092, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116977, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.190179, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.273605, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.289226, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083649, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.325797, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.280079, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10037142, "relative_activity": 0.886569, "balance": 0.280079, "dry_up": 0.737147, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103326, "annualized_volatility": 0.398016, "from_high_reference": -0.480286, "from_low_reference": 0.224916 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.504101, "fair_value_reference": 22.46175, "structural_low": 14.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.00653, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.011252, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.350682, "worst_return": -0.244724, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.01365, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.013193, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.695432, "worst_return": -0.405329, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.090396, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.086882, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.707276, "worst_return": -0.385079, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.207461, "energy": 88.492535, "activity_lines": [ 18.316667, 19.508246, 21.668634, 23.188071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.42, "volume": 8184527, "typical_volume": 11367147.9, "trend": 24.530434, "fair_value": 22.605276, "relative_strength": -35.103405, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.357812, "energy": 90.026576, "activity_lines": [ 17.564667, 18.725579, 21.004572, 22.64357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.44, "volume": 8162803, "typical_volume": 11275273.65, "trend": 24.148101, "fair_value": 22.547327, "relative_strength": -39.052961, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.282292, "energy": 90.871866, "activity_lines": [ 16.711333, 17.915906, 20.310129, 22.057091 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.549999, "volume": 6997472, "typical_volume": 11252156.3, "trend": 23.791434, "fair_value": 22.497904, "relative_strength": -34.280921, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.659466, "energy": 80.857441, "activity_lines": [ 16.505333, 17.458042, 19.781257, 21.566891 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.190001, "volume": 10037142, "typical_volume": 11321336.3, "trend": 23.504101, "fair_value": 22.46175, "relative_strength": -28.922579, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.275457, "energy": 64.216408, "activity_lines": [ 16.931333, 17.425455, 19.458719, 21.205508 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }