{ "ticker": { "uuid": "35bbef99-94c0-4f54-a8b7-2986361fc9cc", "symbol": "SYNA", "name": "Synaptics Incorporated", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.758, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 3.447, "architecture_energy": 15.509, "architecture_maturity": 58.935, "architecture_confidence": 78.148, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.28, "rotation_up": 15.2, "upward_expansion": 45.47, "deceleration": 87.4, "rotation_down": 39.11, "downward_expansion": 28.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 110.272, 116.265182, 118.435643, 110.833086 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 106.19, "trend_reference": 101.7875, "distance_from_trend": 0.043252, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 84.576827, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.255545, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.590468, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.190071, "excess_performance": 0.002617, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043252, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.189931, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.255545, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.286445, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.065905, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.361879, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.190071, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.560703, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4293681, "relative_activity": 0.920296, "balance": 0.560703, "dry_up": 0.783283, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.170018, "annualized_volatility": 0.655562, "from_high_reference": -0.287841, "from_low_reference": 0.822066 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 101.7875, "fair_value_reference": 84.576827, "structural_low": 64.53, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.055224, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.080338, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.567683, "worst_return": -0.347702, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.192681, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.185301, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.11168, "worst_return": -0.241966, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.185923, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.285386, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.157308, "worst_return": -0.189797, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.078806, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.086832, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.099811, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.054649, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.202516, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.07299, "active": false }, { 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131.114667, 130.239818, 113.20019, 104.371871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 119.52, "volume": 8467208, "typical_volume": 4485486.0, "trend": 95.637667, "fair_value": 83.797372, "relative_strength": 25.696926, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.178373, "energy": 39.201222, "activity_lines": [ 126.928667, 129.278, 114.971476, 106.002882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 126.76, "volume": 5619934, "typical_volume": 4618284.2, "trend": 97.282, "fair_value": 84.035577, "relative_strength": 29.983408, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.47584, "energy": 31.228994, "activity_lines": [ 126.34, 129.166, 117.295571, 108.010774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 114.045, "volume": 3554679, "typical_volume": 4651960.55, "trend": 98.612833, "fair_value": 84.202853, "relative_strength": 21.230108, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.879455, "energy": 22.855598, "activity_lines": [ 121.247667, 126.192, 118.206429, 109.092258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 113.0, "volume": 3250947, "typical_volume": 4642177.85, "trend": 99.930833, "fair_value": 84.361506, "relative_strength": 21.251149, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.887585, "energy": 21.015712, "activity_lines": [ 117.433333, 123.235, 118.862595, 110.020462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 107.32, "volume": 3518448, "typical_volume": 4638451.55, "trend": 100.9835, "fair_value": 84.467917, "relative_strength": 13.781429, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.71104, "energy": 17.146033, "activity_lines": [ 113.585, 119.522182, 118.782571, 110.497183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 106.19, "volume": 4293681, "typical_volume": 4665541.9, "trend": 101.7875, "fair_value": 84.576827, "relative_strength": 6.590468, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.447272, "energy": 15.509423, "activity_lines": [ 110.272, 116.265182, 118.435643, 110.833086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }