{ "ticker": { "uuid": "35be4f20-760b-4778-8fce-42bb138dd140", "symbol": "2321", "name": "Tecom Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 34.229, "architecture_energy": 27.067, "architecture_maturity": 17.12, "architecture_confidence": 50.511, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.02, "rotation_up": 54.41, "upward_expansion": 49.01, "deceleration": 37.39, "rotation_down": 21.64, "downward_expansion": 9.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.273333, 14.933636, 14.384762, 14.374409 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.65, "trend_reference": 14.67, "distance_from_trend": 0.066803, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.713141, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.004018, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -31.682121, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.03096, "excess_performance": -0.472332, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.066803, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056895, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.004018, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.211436, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.316821, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.155926, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.03096, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.418491, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 76227, "relative_activity": 1.769599, "balance": 3.418491, "dry_up": 0.893412, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085279, "annualized_volatility": 0.449709, "from_high_reference": -0.254762, "from_low_reference": 0.272358 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.67, "fair_value_reference": 15.713141, "structural_low": 12.3, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.029333, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.029702, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": -0.001664, "worst_return": -0.07571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.045741, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.054108, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.272546, "worst_return": -0.151079, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.117296, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.07247, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.066246, "worst_return": -0.168345, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.106452, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.191617, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.046931, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032468, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04023, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", 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[ 14.746667, 14.339091, 13.966667, 14.311183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.0, "volume": 23523, "typical_volume": 40721.05, "trend": 14.86, "fair_value": 15.772115, "relative_strength": -33.440511, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.807355, "energy": 33.602277, "activity_lines": [ 14.936667, 14.52, 14.058333, 14.314946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.4, "volume": 19280, "typical_volume": 38970.1, "trend": 14.793333, "fair_value": 15.746154, "relative_strength": -34.653861, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.129009, "energy": 32.022842, "activity_lines": [ 14.863334, 14.548182, 14.098333, 14.285269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.3, "volume": 34908, "typical_volume": 39662.4, "trend": 14.775, "fair_value": 15.727564, "relative_strength": -31.593087, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.918343, "energy": 33.708981, "activity_lines": [ 15.056667, 14.710909, 14.226429, 14.317957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 15.65, "volume": 76227, "typical_volume": 43075.85, "trend": 14.67, "fair_value": 15.713141, "relative_strength": -31.682121, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.228952, "energy": 27.067284, "activity_lines": [ 15.273333, 14.933636, 14.384762, 14.374409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }