{ "ticker": { "uuid": "35bec2d9-3317-4479-9991-7a74a35c2b17", "symbol": "PINE3", "name": "Banco Pine S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 76.686, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.042, "architecture_energy": 30.562, "architecture_maturity": 24.089, "architecture_confidence": 51.069, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.38, "rotation_up": 20.33, "upward_expansion": 14.03, "deceleration": 61.17, "rotation_down": 47.97, "downward_expansion": 66.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.859822, 11.846651, 12.336536, 12.46663 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.5, "trend_reference": 12.588439, "distance_from_trend": -0.086463, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.649024, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.729577, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.412665, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.112595, "excess_performance": -0.055547, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.086463, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036414, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.729577, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.395952, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.024127, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.211332, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.112595, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.469178, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20300, "relative_activity": 0.563811, "balance": 1.469178, "dry_up": 1.541453, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083366, "annualized_volatility": 0.507626, "from_high_reference": -0.255305, "from_low_reference": 1.169269 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.588439, "fair_value_reference": 6.649024, "structural_low": 10.603826, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": 0.023085, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 1.964642, "worst_return": -0.085417, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.178895, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.067816, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.971786, "worst_return": -0.114959, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.346525, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 1.305116, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.711712, "worst_return": -0.018661, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.084367, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.16388, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.019768, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.082091, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 1.273189, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 12.29, "volume": 121700, "typical_volume": 36320.0, "trend": 12.628706, "fair_value": 6.51187, "relative_strength": 10.219208, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.057045, "energy": 47.053486, "activity_lines": [ 11.749631, 11.937407, 12.483082, 12.557344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.34, "volume": 16000, "typical_volume": 36385.0, "trend": 12.617368, "fair_value": 6.58314, "relative_strength": 7.33156, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.806386, "energy": 26.628255, "activity_lines": [ 11.968407, 11.962393, 12.452206, 12.538718 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.5, "volume": 20300, "typical_volume": 36005.0, "trend": 12.588439, "fair_value": 6.649024, "relative_strength": 2.412665, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.042485, "energy": 30.562459, "activity_lines": [ 11.859822, 11.846651, 12.336536, 12.46663 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }