{ "ticker": { "uuid": "35c33c0b-0807-4711-adaf-aa1eceb71878", "symbol": "6679", "name": "Zilltek Technology Corp.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 93.778, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -42.393, "architecture_energy": 65.174, "architecture_maturity": 18.968, "architecture_confidence": 73.275, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.71, "rotation_up": 16.75, "upward_expansion": 22.58, "deceleration": 43.56, "rotation_down": 75.21, "downward_expansion": 66.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 209.633333, 225.672727, 251.182371, 253.090192 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 205.5, "trend_reference": 245.257578, "distance_from_trend": -0.162105, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 287.20786, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.28449, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.119812, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.117171, "excess_performance": -0.324201, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.162105, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089224, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.28449, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.313922, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.331198, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.290601, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.117171, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.620278, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1033146, "relative_activity": 0.46575, "balance": 0.620278, "dry_up": 0.749817, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.151351, "annualized_volatility": 0.535131, "from_high_reference": -0.40576, "from_low_reference": 0.239465 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 245.257578, "fair_value_reference": 287.20786, "structural_low": 181.98469, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.070887, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.030313, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.180212, "worst_return": -0.048179, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.128024, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.175606, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.371025, "worst_return": -0.209938, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.042456, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.162954, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.268551, "worst_return": -0.325156, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.121212, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.030172, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.077698, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.306607, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.11435, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", 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241.890084, "fair_value": 289.91334, "relative_strength": -26.608653, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.236836, "energy": 38.817439, "activity_lines": [ 236.033333, 254.020766, 268.295014, 260.111152 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 205.0, "volume": 2351385, "typical_volume": 2331416.05, "trend": 242.853471, "fair_value": 288.947533, "relative_strength": -30.770952, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.777246, "energy": 58.516877, "activity_lines": [ 222.633333, 242.127273, 262.239701, 257.731146 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 209.5, "volume": 1964393, "typical_volume": 2264753.75, "trend": 244.081314, "fair_value": 288.016494, "relative_strength": -30.257629, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.746939, "energy": 62.907033, "activity_lines": [ 214.8, 233.309091, 256.809356, 255.579309 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 205.5, "volume": 1033146, "typical_volume": 2218239.9, "trend": 245.257578, "fair_value": 287.20786, "relative_strength": -33.119812, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.392902, "energy": 65.174193, "activity_lines": [ 209.633333, 225.672727, 251.182371, 253.090192 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }