{ "ticker": { "uuid": "35c4b431-e27f-4b7d-bf6b-6af121bff3f6", "symbol": "FLXU", "name": "Franklin U.S. Equity UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.113, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.077, "architecture_energy": 62.12, "architecture_maturity": 91.83, "architecture_confidence": 63.62, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.26, "rotation_up": 50.27, "upward_expansion": 81.96, "deceleration": 71.5, "rotation_down": 29.57, "downward_expansion": 10.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 66.679334, 66.581273, 65.667953, 64.262065 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 67.870003, "trend_reference": 62.531333, "distance_from_trend": 0.085376, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 53.704615, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.263765, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.308165, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.141824, "excess_performance": -0.029068, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.085376, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045669, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.263765, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036168, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.033082, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015328, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.141824, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.941233, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 494, "relative_activity": 0.2904, "balance": 2.941233, "dry_up": 0.867821, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017726, "annualized_volatility": 0.106297, "from_high_reference": -0.002938, "from_low_reference": 0.236924 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 62.531333, "fair_value_reference": 53.704615, "structural_low": 56.630001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": 0.004791, "positive_rate": 0.619048, "directional_follow_through": 0.619048, "median_excess_return": -0.001905, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.060272, "worst_return": -0.093767, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.019033, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.009719, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.097987, "worst_return": -0.068845, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.065083, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.016077, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.138218, "worst_return": -0.031501, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"relative_strength": -2.327804, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.036986, "energy": 65.522091, "activity_lines": [ 66.646665, 66.368908, 64.769857, 63.381935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 66.370003, "volume": 67, "typical_volume": 1622.75, "trend": 62.012333, "fair_value": 53.416667, "relative_strength": -2.194191, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.251222, "energy": 64.073293, "activity_lines": [ 66.563333, 66.425272, 65.084762, 63.680215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 65.419998, "volume": 1152, "typical_volume": 1678.1, "trend": 62.259, "fair_value": 53.553365, "relative_strength": -4.107172, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.727984, "energy": 52.536977, "activity_lines": [ 66.192666, 66.279999, 65.27519, 63.900065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 67.870003, "volume": 494, "typical_volume": 1701.1, "trend": 62.531333, "fair_value": 53.704615, "relative_strength": -3.308165, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.076744, "energy": 62.11955, "activity_lines": [ 66.679334, 66.581273, 65.667953, 64.262065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }