{ "ticker": { "uuid": "35c585b0-cb24-4fe9-8ee4-4bf506ad5945", "symbol": "CTT", "name": "Cettire Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -27.37, "architecture_energy": 21.293, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 66.27, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.32, "rotation_up": 29.61, "upward_expansion": 20.57, "deceleration": 44.14, "rotation_down": 30.01, "downward_expansion": 56.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.218, 0.212091, 0.214833, 0.235817 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.25, "trend_reference": 0.298333, "distance_from_trend": -0.162011, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.442949, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.826744, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -46.849469, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.5, "excess_performance": -0.563706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.162011, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.388243, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.826744, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039905, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.468495, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077113, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.5, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.316019, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10464359, "relative_activity": 1.120444, "balance": 1.316019, "dry_up": 1.438739, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.16, "annualized_volatility": 0.865559, "from_high_reference": -0.738903, "from_low_reference": 0.470588 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.298333, "fair_value_reference": 1.442949, "structural_low": 0.17, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.022727, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": -0.022954, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 1.301587, "worst_return": -0.375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.169949, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.163182, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 1.307692, "worst_return": -0.721311, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.545614, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.468402, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 2.529412, "worst_return": -0.772321, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.110294, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.672269, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.367925, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.097403, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.217391, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.504274, "active": 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"direction": -61.046952, "energy": 55.733677, "activity_lines": [ 0.208, 0.211727, 0.221548, 0.272548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.18, "volume": 16474574, "typical_volume": 9450416.4, "trend": 0.364667, "fair_value": 1.497564, "relative_strength": -60.189612, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.840007, "energy": 60.970357, "activity_lines": [ 0.198333, 0.206, 0.216167, 0.25914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.195, "volume": 12225130, "typical_volume": 9223747.8, "trend": 0.340167, "fair_value": 1.479583, "relative_strength": -56.47527, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.826996, "energy": 51.847097, "activity_lines": [ 0.196333, 0.203727, 0.212905, 0.248194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.215, "volume": 14584219, "typical_volume": 9140131.1, "trend": 0.316667, "fair_value": 1.462564, "relative_strength": -52.966336, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.886168, "energy": 42.407139, "activity_lines": [ 0.202333, 0.205091, 0.212048, 0.240118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.25, "volume": 10464359, "typical_volume": 9339477.0, "trend": 0.298333, "fair_value": 1.442949, "relative_strength": -46.849469, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.37042, "energy": 21.293159, "activity_lines": [ 0.218, 0.212091, 0.214833, 0.235817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }