{ "ticker": { "uuid": "35c6d0e9-fc43-489b-a84b-c38149b03494", "symbol": "PAXS", "name": "PIMCO Access Income Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 54.375, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -18.866, "architecture_energy": 8.897, "architecture_maturity": 24.81, "architecture_confidence": 57.869, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.62, "rotation_up": 25.18, "upward_expansion": 25.14, "deceleration": 53.0, "rotation_down": 36.1, "downward_expansion": 54.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.261978, 14.275752, 14.219817, 14.222619 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 14.33, "trend_reference": 14.344476, "distance_from_trend": -0.001009, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.07018, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.096389, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.944876, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.040296, "excess_performance": -0.165921, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001009, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00955, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.096389, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023876, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.119449, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006181, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.040296, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.344927, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 960222, "relative_activity": 1.076175, "balance": 1.344927, "dry_up": 1.003528, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026292, "annualized_volatility": 0.159468, "from_high_reference": -0.06358, "from_low_reference": 0.076079 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.344476, "fair_value_reference": 13.07018, "structural_low": 13.316868, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.01264, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.014428, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.042564, "worst_return": -0.02482, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.064075, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.047367, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.068197, "worst_return": 0.003623, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.058961, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.025358, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.074477, "worst_return": 0.043445, "sufficient": false }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011111, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025238, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029022, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044702, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030147, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": 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"typical_volume": 936792.95, "trend": 14.387197, "fair_value": 13.001538, "relative_strength": -8.309507, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.121066, "energy": 34.21044, "activity_lines": [ 14.445559, 14.29077, 14.203002, 14.261501 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.03, "volume": 846193, "typical_volume": 918031.3, "trend": 14.371841, "fair_value": 13.023863, "relative_strength": -10.413682, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.965887, "energy": 21.439489, "activity_lines": [ 14.337578, 14.264545, 14.194496, 14.238456 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.16, "volume": 986300, "typical_volume": 904524.05, "trend": 14.363642, "fair_value": 13.046338, "relative_strength": -10.246761, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.677063, "energy": 11.128948, "activity_lines": [ 14.270649, 14.257123, 14.199407, 14.224789 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.33, "volume": 960222, "typical_volume": 892254.2, "trend": 14.344476, "fair_value": 13.07018, "relative_strength": -11.944876, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.865501, "energy": 8.896694, "activity_lines": [ 14.261978, 14.275752, 14.219817, 14.222619 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }