{ "ticker": { "uuid": "35c7b932-29e2-476e-8cbd-0a5233295723", "symbol": "600082", "name": "Tianjin Hi-Tech Development Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.038, "architecture_energy": 49.566, "architecture_maturity": 61.589, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.88, "rotation_up": 21.35, "upward_expansion": 7.36, "deceleration": 50.86, "rotation_down": 54.09, "downward_expansion": 78.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.742667, 2.783091, 3.002143, 3.184817 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.83, "trend_reference": 3.469667, "distance_from_trend": -0.18436, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.245433, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.128006, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.507815, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.308068, "excess_performance": -0.264865, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.18436, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138185, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.128006, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.288196, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.255078, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114272, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.308068, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.465065, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39445571, "relative_activity": 0.58862, "balance": 0.465065, "dry_up": 0.504403, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115792, "annualized_volatility": 0.578014, "from_high_reference": -0.501761, "from_low_reference": 0.1841 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.469667, "fair_value_reference": 3.245433, "structural_low": 2.39, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.003049, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.023334, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.38191, "worst_return": -0.225454, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.010918, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.025744, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.596774, "worst_return": -0.259477, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.116565, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.094985, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.591398, "worst_return": -0.279491, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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3.643333, "fair_value": 3.25907, "relative_strength": -29.986436, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.006587, "energy": 73.003602, "activity_lines": [ 2.856667, 3.044909, 3.218286, 3.408495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.67, "volume": 28474700, "typical_volume": 78855638.05, "trend": 3.602333, "fair_value": 3.25606, "relative_strength": -28.268952, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.481991, "energy": 75.701048, "activity_lines": [ 2.782, 2.940545, 3.149905, 3.345699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.5, "volume": 27277494, "typical_volume": 70348772.0, "trend": 3.550667, "fair_value": 3.25164, "relative_strength": -33.090218, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.008771, "energy": 71.155002, "activity_lines": [ 2.676, 2.825455, 3.073524, 3.274581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.84, "volume": 40009801, "typical_volume": 68372978.45, "trend": 3.510667, "fair_value": 3.249207, "relative_strength": -23.767071, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.363012, "energy": 54.623628, "activity_lines": [ 2.716, 2.796727, 3.035952, 3.228731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.83, "volume": 39445571, "typical_volume": 67013681.3, "trend": 3.469667, "fair_value": 3.245433, "relative_strength": -25.507815, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.038189, "energy": 49.566002, "activity_lines": [ 2.742667, 2.783091, 3.002143, 3.184817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }