{ "ticker": { "uuid": "35cc4ba9-ca04-4201-9bf2-ed6aabaeced6", "symbol": "600871", "name": "Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.278, "architecture_energy": 42.843, "architecture_maturity": 78.974, "architecture_confidence": 88.498, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.45, "rotation_up": 27.69, "upward_expansion": 20.27, "deceleration": 46.96, "rotation_down": 37.0, "downward_expansion": 67.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.177333, 2.148, 2.262333, 2.429075 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.21, "trend_reference": 2.599, "distance_from_trend": -0.149673, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.093269, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.055765, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.884899, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.351906, "excess_performance": -0.308702, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.149673, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014286, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.055765, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.221939, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.078849, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119014, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.351906, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.645049, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 520434433, "relative_activity": 0.795307, "balance": 0.645049, "dry_up": 1.422772, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071006, "annualized_volatility": 0.408563, "from_high_reference": -0.5, "from_low_reference": 0.127551 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.599, "fair_value_reference": 2.093269, "structural_low": 1.99, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.007966, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.003407, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.083333, "worst_return": -0.095477, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.026042, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.018159, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.183908, "worst_return": -0.164384, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.078125, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.069559, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.132184, "worst_return": -0.123288, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.93213, "energy": 87.215423, "activity_lines": [ 2.095333, 2.186727, 2.406571, 2.54114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.04, "volume": 1207469857, "typical_volume": 884157826.95, "trend": 2.595333, "fair_value": 2.090769, "relative_strength": -10.919743, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.93704, "energy": 87.859898, "activity_lines": [ 2.069333, 2.142, 2.34981, 2.505097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.17, "volume": 1292027735, "typical_volume": 790008473.85, "trend": 2.595667, "fair_value": 2.091603, "relative_strength": -6.512092, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.75013, "energy": 62.792149, "activity_lines": [ 2.1, 2.132182, 2.311, 2.477656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.23, "volume": 704211326, "typical_volume": 705506048.45, "trend": 2.597333, "fair_value": 2.092436, "relative_strength": -4.423019, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.482532, "energy": 50.581737, "activity_lines": [ 2.148667, 2.14, 2.285048, 2.454065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.21, "volume": 520434433, "typical_volume": 654381600.95, "trend": 2.599, "fair_value": 2.093269, "relative_strength": -7.884899, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.277547, "energy": 42.842716, "activity_lines": [ 2.177333, 2.148, 2.262333, 2.429075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }