{ "ticker": { "uuid": "35d032ac-5e9d-4e77-8b28-90a974d5faee", "symbol": "XLES", "name": "Invesco Energy S&P US Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.942, "architecture_energy": 55.597, "architecture_maturity": 5.467, "architecture_confidence": 70.779, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.44, "rotation_up": 66.67, "upward_expansion": 80.84, "deceleration": 51.19, "rotation_down": 11.61, "downward_expansion": 12.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 714.383329, 698.976359, 693.027476, 689.459569 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 704.25, "trend_reference": 675.001331, "distance_from_trend": 0.043331, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 567.345716, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.241307, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.270377, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.131035, "excess_performance": -0.039857, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043331, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083136, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.241307, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034378, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.012704, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043857, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.131035, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.150761, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5856, "relative_activity": 0.876857, "balance": 2.150761, "dry_up": 0.680253, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0479, "annualized_volatility": 0.308619, "from_high_reference": -0.088113, "from_low_reference": 0.418886 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 675.001331, "fair_value_reference": 567.345716, 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690.243273, 689.298811, 683.557484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 721.22998, "volume": 4330, "typical_volume": 6718.7, "trend": 670.11133, "fair_value": 566.258088, "relative_strength": 4.26764, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.013817, "energy": 53.779913, "activity_lines": [ 712.607328, 696.239996, 692.027524, 687.257074 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 704.25, "volume": 5856, "typical_volume": 6678.4, "trend": 675.001331, "fair_value": 567.345716, "relative_strength": -1.270377, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.942031, "energy": 55.597286, "activity_lines": [ 714.383329, 698.976359, 693.027476, 689.459569 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }