{ "ticker": { "uuid": "35d2aedd-c857-4d42-85cb-643fe9f73d18", "symbol": "SFD", "name": "NXT Energy Solutions Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 58.3, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.289, "architecture_energy": 26.546, "architecture_maturity": 11.208, "architecture_confidence": 61.364, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.1, "rotation_up": 20.5, "upward_expansion": 25.03, "deceleration": 53.63, "rotation_down": 57.64, "downward_expansion": 36.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.369333, 0.387455, 0.396619, 0.389097 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.34, "trend_reference": 0.373667, "distance_from_trend": -0.090098, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.316538, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.074119, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.764829, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.030303, "excess_performance": -0.090118, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.090098, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062559, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.074119, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142832, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.297648, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048718, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.030303, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.733229, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 57000, "relative_activity": 1.000527, "balance": 1.733229, "dry_up": 0.871511, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.158371, "annualized_volatility": 0.865277, "from_high_reference": -0.634409, "from_low_reference": 0.259259 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.373667, "fair_value_reference": 0.316538, "structural_low": 0.29, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.020275, "regime_survival": 0.181818, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.411765, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.07619, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.088048, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.428571, "worst_return": -0.190476, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.214286, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.274771, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.666667, "worst_return": -0.409091, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.380952, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.473476, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.538462, "worst_return": -0.571429, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.136364, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.26087, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.157895, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.375, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.285714, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.407407, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.225352, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"typical_volume": 60295.0, "trend": 0.369333, "fair_value": 0.314231, "relative_strength": -24.024722, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.901288, "energy": 15.261668, "activity_lines": [ 0.407333, 0.411273, 0.403905, 0.390022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.4, "volume": 51000, "typical_volume": 60290.0, "trend": 0.372333, "fair_value": 0.315128, "relative_strength": -20.084897, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.655259, "energy": 15.578378, "activity_lines": [ 0.403333, 0.408, 0.404714, 0.392 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.36, "volume": 30000, "typical_volume": 60680.0, "trend": 0.372667, "fair_value": 0.315705, "relative_strength": -25.561222, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.786099, "energy": 7.218297, "activity_lines": [ 0.389333, 0.398909, 0.401571, 0.391204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.34, "volume": 57000, "typical_volume": 56970.0, "trend": 0.373667, "fair_value": 0.316538, "relative_strength": -29.764829, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.288685, "energy": 26.545532, "activity_lines": [ 0.369333, 0.387455, 0.396619, 0.389097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }