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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 48.729, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 22.973, "architecture_energy": 11.805, "architecture_maturity": 76.237, "architecture_confidence": 77.734, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.0, "rotation_up": 25.17, "upward_expansion": 55.79, "deceleration": 86.9, "rotation_down": 31.19, "downward_expansion": 21.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 70.283333, 71.118149, 70.700596, 69.479075 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 68.35, "trend_reference": 67.542318, "distance_from_trend": 0.011958, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 50.160631, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.362622, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.482217, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.07866, "excess_performance": -0.046965, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011958, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084453, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.362622, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059753, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.044822, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039405, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.07866, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.934417, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 51081041, "relative_activity": 1.221576, "balance": 0.934417, "dry_up": 1.060664, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061627, "annualized_volatility": 0.327294, "from_high_reference": -0.113029, "from_low_reference": 0.289659 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 67.542318, "fair_value_reference": 50.160631, "structural_low": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 72.99, "volume": 31467339, "typical_volume": 42051520.85, "trend": 66.695243, "fair_value": 49.731199, "relative_strength": 6.530001, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.614968, "energy": 38.256906, "activity_lines": [ 73.091333, 72.291757, 70.880169, 69.294381 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 68.33, "volume": 58050340, "typical_volume": 42876583.05, "trend": 67.122, "fair_value": 49.945164, "relative_strength": -1.299908, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.766359, "energy": 20.182249, "activity_lines": [ 71.502, 71.662578, 70.795506, 69.399849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 68.35, "volume": 51081041, "typical_volume": 41815675.1, "trend": 67.542318, "fair_value": 50.160631, "relative_strength": -4.482217, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.9729, "energy": 11.805443, "activity_lines": [ 70.283333, 71.118149, 70.700596, 69.479075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }