{ "ticker": { "uuid": "35da74a3-4b91-462c-b884-6240d167a0aa", "symbol": "MOV", "name": "MOVE Logistics Group Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.875, "architecture_energy": 36.542, "architecture_maturity": 30.27, "architecture_confidence": 88.734, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.26, "rotation_up": 17.3, "upward_expansion": 3.55, "deceleration": 50.1, "rotation_down": 50.46, "downward_expansion": 72.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.200667, 0.203418, 0.207038, 0.212125 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.21, "trend_reference": 0.224433, "distance_from_trend": -0.06431, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.308974, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.320332, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.090252, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.207547, "excess_performance": -0.235821, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.06431, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050353, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.320332, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100583, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.100903, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040477, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.207547, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.91968, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 131144, "relative_activity": 0.661143, "balance": 0.91968, "dry_up": 2.674303, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083883, "annualized_volatility": 0.603919, "from_high_reference": -0.382353, "from_low_reference": 0.206897 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.224433, "fair_value_reference": 0.308974, "structural_low": 0.174, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.034783, "positive_rate": 0.324324, "directional_follow_through": 0.648649, "median_excess_return": -0.066911, "regime_survival": 0.810811, "best_return": 0.265432, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.138587, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.133388, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.257143, "worst_return": -0.375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.228916, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.150658, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.556962, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.944916, "energy": 46.96262, "activity_lines": [ 0.201333, 0.204036, 0.209414, 0.217123 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.2, "volume": 787983, "typical_volume": 179347.7, "trend": 0.229267, "fair_value": 0.316923, "relative_strength": -14.460629, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.048557, "energy": 48.605637, "activity_lines": [ 0.198667, 0.203164, 0.20821, 0.215127 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.2, "volume": 655958, "typical_volume": 210691.45, "trend": 0.227267, "fair_value": 0.313077, "relative_strength": -13.81947, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.242465, "energy": 51.173022, "activity_lines": [ 0.197333, 0.202382, 0.207052, 0.213239 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.21, "volume": 131144, "typical_volume": 198359.55, "trend": 0.224433, "fair_value": 0.308974, "relative_strength": -10.090252, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.874964, "energy": 36.54183, "activity_lines": [ 0.200667, 0.203418, 0.207038, 0.212125 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }