{ "ticker": { "uuid": "35dd0024-8335-445f-905a-76763727e0b0", "symbol": "FDRV", "name": "Fidelity Electric Vehicles and Future Transportation ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 67.043, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -17.346, "architecture_energy": 26.833, "architecture_maturity": 35.596, "architecture_confidence": 59.115, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.64, "rotation_up": 14.75, "upward_expansion": 16.38, "deceleration": 60.11, "rotation_down": 58.03, "downward_expansion": 41.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.95572, 18.306296, 18.753157, 18.447883 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 18.246, "trend_reference": 18.020233, "distance_from_trend": 0.012529, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.232766, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.197813, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.513923, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.057308, "excess_performance": -0.068317, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.012529, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040749, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.197813, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108558, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.065139, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.147906, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.057308, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.847057, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22401, "relative_activity": 0.520741, "balance": 0.847057, "dry_up": 0.542918, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062704, "annualized_volatility": 0.253701, "from_high_reference": -0.15337, "from_low_reference": 0.227738 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.020233, "fair_value_reference": 15.232766, "structural_low": 15.637906, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.048181, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.033443, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.078551, "worst_return": -0.101289, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.048181, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.11281, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.135566, "worst_return": -0.120211, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.085573, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.191482, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.303993, "worst_return": -0.204321, "sufficient": false }, { 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032984, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065947, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.100766, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.115608, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005239, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 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18.957637, 18.463861 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.0915, "volume": 23211, "typical_volume": 44968.05, "trend": 17.92465, "fair_value": 15.263289, "relative_strength": -3.688058, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.35583, "energy": 19.351449, "activity_lines": [ 18.585053, 19.026006, 18.936484, 18.478086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.44, "volume": 25502, "typical_volume": 43674.65, "trend": 17.952275, "fair_value": 15.244316, "relative_strength": -6.519559, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -7.260325, "energy": 19.592708, "activity_lines": [ 18.136327, 18.681175, 18.848838, 18.446819 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.7107, "volume": 22306, "typical_volume": 43455.75, "trend": 17.987929, "fair_value": 15.233268, "relative_strength": -6.085031, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.445127, "energy": 27.582325, "activity_lines": [ 17.92988, 18.424922, 18.779303, 18.431233 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.246, "volume": 22401, "typical_volume": 43017.55, "trend": 18.020233, "fair_value": 15.232766, "relative_strength": -6.513923, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.346182, "energy": 26.832959, "activity_lines": [ 17.95572, 18.306296, 18.753157, 18.447883 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }