{ "ticker": { "uuid": "35e3c144-dc6e-4288-8587-0a87bc4ab973", "symbol": "LAXMICOT", "name": "Laxmi Cotspin Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 60.033, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -22.938, "architecture_energy": 9.833, "architecture_maturity": 22.705, "architecture_confidence": 56.394, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.68, "rotation_up": 20.75, "upward_expansion": 19.94, "deceleration": 55.05, "rotation_down": 33.83, "downward_expansion": 51.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.56, 14.618909, 14.543714, 14.555441 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 14.79, "trend_reference": 14.725667, "distance_from_trend": 0.004369, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.930705, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.406756, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.223314, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.077203, "excess_performance": 0.120912, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004369, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097526, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.406756, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034691, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.152233, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.143729, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.077203, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.461904, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 56181, "relative_activity": 1.278656, "balance": 1.461904, "dry_up": 1.252232, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10038, "annualized_volatility": 1.026779, "from_high_reference": -0.451816, "from_low_reference": 0.264103 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.725667, "fair_value_reference": 24.930705, "structural_low": 11.7, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.017022, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.020448, "regime_survival": 0.65, "best_return": 0.099057, "worst_return": -0.137184, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.089494, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.057685, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.19084, "worst_return": -0.17561, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.006397, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.121677, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.159705, "worst_return": -0.272075, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.002132, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.089323, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.008547, "worst_return": -0.508615, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.197107, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.073733, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.106581, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.06548, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026409, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.071553, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025844, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040169, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.075883, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.07125, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.378452, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.199665, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.000676, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 19.5, "volume": 60103, "typical_volume": 180925.25, "trend": 20.326666, "fair_value": 19.648718, "relative_strength": -16.071798, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": 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{ "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.12, "volume": 19690, "typical_volume": 50787.2, "trend": 14.932, "fair_value": 25.005192, "relative_strength": -18.331254, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.88639, "energy": 13.198051, "activity_lines": [ 14.536, 14.574545, 14.473, 14.58314 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.49, "volume": 57372, "typical_volume": 46389.9, "trend": 14.777333, "fair_value": 24.966026, "relative_strength": -17.238238, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.455677, "energy": 11.452757, "activity_lines": [ 14.48, 14.572364, 14.498381, 14.554624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.79, "volume": 56181, "typical_volume": 43937.55, "trend": 14.725667, "fair_value": 24.930705, "relative_strength": -15.223314, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.938217, "energy": 9.832501, "activity_lines": [ 14.56, 14.618909, 14.543714, 14.555441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }