{ "ticker": { "uuid": "35e5d509-0f20-42f4-95ef-a62088626786", "symbol": "001289", "name": "China Longyuan Power Group Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 57.785, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.969, "architecture_energy": 20.187, "architecture_maturity": 16.271, "architecture_confidence": 65.666, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.28, "rotation_up": 23.38, "upward_expansion": 8.39, "deceleration": 55.52, "rotation_down": 49.17, "downward_expansion": 47.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.138, 16.292851, 16.640763, 16.703967 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.97, "trend_reference": 16.619348, "distance_from_trend": -0.039072, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.939153, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.057214, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.109634, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.019796, "excess_performance": 0.012396, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.039072, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012977, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.057214, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053513, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.071096, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089965, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.019796, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.84281, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33738160, "relative_activity": 0.819764, "balance": 0.84281, "dry_up": 0.996605, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080923, "annualized_volatility": 0.390168, "from_high_reference": -0.184096, "from_low_reference": 0.073823 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.619348, "fair_value_reference": 16.939153, "structural_low": 15.01, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.002717, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.046699, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.061404, "worst_return": -0.111819, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.002673, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.058044, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.041133, "worst_return": -0.091976, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.063034, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.026974, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.152524, "worst_return": -0.012127, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -4.131877, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.980429, "energy": 30.542896, "activity_lines": [ 16.068666, 16.533705, 16.757195, 16.745409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.52, "volume": 30573150, "typical_volume": 42030370.2, "trend": 16.588348, "fair_value": 16.962403, "relative_strength": 0.716096, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.307793, "energy": 29.445606, "activity_lines": [ 16.16, 16.458521, 16.720622, 16.74386 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.97, "volume": 33738160, "typical_volume": 41155920.4, "trend": 16.619348, "fair_value": 16.939153, "relative_strength": -7.109634, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.969479, "energy": 20.18698, "activity_lines": [ 16.138, 16.292851, 16.640763, 16.703967 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }